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Metals & Mining

State Of The Market: Mining Q4 2017 Snapshot

Capital Markets

S&P Global - Data Services

Energy

Power Forecast Briefing: Natural Gas And Coal Dynamics, Pressure On Nuclear, And Southwest Capacity

Bidding War Over Fox Could Spur Titans To Take A Look At Paramount Pictures

Judge OKs AT&T/Time Warner, Opening A Potential Bidding War For FOX Assets

Metals & Mining
State Of The Market: Mining Q4 2017 Snapshot

Mar. 08 2018 — The following research article is an excerpt of the State of the Market: Mining report for Q4 2017, a detailed analysis of mining industry performance that includes expert commentary from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Last year, we saw the first annual increase in exploration budgets for nonferrous metals after four consecutive years of declining expenditure. Having plunged to a number in 2016 that was barely one-third of the record high of US$21.5 billion allocated in 2012, the total recovered to an estimated US$8.4 billion in 2017. Moreover, by the end of December, the market value of the industry's listed companies had risen to US$1,559 billion, more than twice the level of January 2016.

Metals prices have benefitted from the improved global economy, and from a recently weaker U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are valued — in January 2018 the dollar’s tradeweighted value touched its lowest level since December 2014. Comments by Steven Mnuchin, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, that a weaker dollar was “good for trade," added to the bullish sentiment for natural resources.

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Download our mining snapshot to gain insights on the following:

  • Market for mining
  • Exploration
  • Pipeline activity index (measurement of the mining exploration sector)
  • Mergers & acquisitions
  • Mining finance
  • Analysts' metals price consensus

Watch: S&P Global - Data Services


Watch: Power Forecast Briefing: Natural Gas And Coal Dynamics, Pressure On Nuclear, And Southwest Capacity

Jun. 20 2018 — Steve Piper shares his Q1 2018 analysis and power market insights along with guidance from our Power Forecast solution on the Market Intelligence platform. The next guidance report will be released around mid-July 2018.

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Technology, Media & Telecommunications
Bidding War Over Fox Could Spur Titans To Take A Look At Paramount Pictures

Highlights

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Jun. 15 2018 — Potentially boosting its international portfolio and massively increasing the company's film and television library, Comcast Corp. on June 13 announced a $35-per-share cash bid for most of 21st Century Fox Inc., a 25% premium to the $28 per share offered by Walt Disney Co.

Kagan estimates that the Comcast offer values the Fox filmed entertainment division at $17.76 billion, nearly $4 billion more than the value placed on it in Disney's original bid. The transaction places the most value on the regional sports networks at more than $19 billion, or 24.2% of the total offer, with filmed entertainment coming in a close second at 22.4%.

While 21st Century Fox has close to a 16% share of the box office year-to-date, it has done better in prior years when big franchise films were in release. Comcast's NBCUniversal Media LLC would benefit greatly by adding the Fox studio to its portfolio. NBCU currently has less than a 10% share of the box office versus Disney's more than one-third share for its films.

The question is, who is next? Long-struggling Viacom Inc. missed a chance to sell a 49% stake in Paramount Pictures Corp. to Dalian Wanda Group Corp. Ltd. in 2016 at a valuation of $8 billion-$10 billion, an impressive number given the fact that the filmed entertainment division had negative operating income before depreciation and amortization of $328 million in fiscal 2017 and negative $407 million in fiscal 2016.

With the much-publicized showdown between Shari Redstone and Les Moonves over the future of Viacom, a sale of Paramount Pictures, all of Viacom or even a piecemeal sale of Viacom assets at high prices could help resolve this simmering feud.

Economics of TV & Film is a regular feature from Kagan, a group within S&P Global Market Intelligence's TMT offering, providing exclusive research and commentary.

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Technology, Media & Telecommunication
Judge OKs AT&T/Time Warner, Opening A Potential Bidding War For FOX Assets

Highlights

The following post comes from Kagan, a research group within S&P Global Market Intelligence.

To learn more about our TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunications) products and/or research, please request a demo.

Jun. 14 2018 — A U.S. district judge on June 12 approved AT&T Inc.'s acquisition of Time Warner Inc. with no restrictions, which should open up the media M&A floodgates in a world that is increasingly moving toward digital consumption of content. First up to bat: competitive bidding for most of 21st Century Fox Inc.

Comcast Corp., emboldened by the decision that the merger did not violate antitrust laws, offered on June 13 to purchase most of 21st Century Fox for $79.17 billion in cash, a 19.7% premium to Walt Disney Co.'s stock offer of $66.14 billion, worth $68.36 billion based on the close of Disney's stock June 13.

On a cash flow basis, the deal would be expensive, at 14.1x 2018 cash flow, although this drops to less than 10x when $2 billion in synergies are factored in.

Although the offer from Comcast is attractive, we think a competing offer that allowed shareholders to choose cash or stock may have been more attractive to some shareholders that have a low basis in their shares. Since this deal was widely expected to be announced, Disney has had plenty of time to consider whether it will bid higher, and if so, if it will do so with a mix of stock and cash. Should the board decide Comcast has the better deal, Disney would have five days to come up with a counter offer.

As the table below shows, the regional sports networks are the most expensive piece of the company, valued at an estimated $19.14 billion in the Comcast offer.

Disney-Fox deal: What will the Department of Justice think?

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