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Probability of default model shows significant drop in risk across industries

The threat of defaults that had spiked during the peak of the pandemic panic is diminishing, with the risk associated with the sectors most affected by the pandemic more than halving from the early-April peak.

The probability-of-default, or PD, model, devised by the Credit Analytics branch of S&P Global Market Intelligence, calculates a median one-year market signal probability of default for 64,000 public companies across the world. The figure represents the odds that a company will default on its debt within the next year based on fluctuations in the company's share price and other country- and industry-related risks.

See which industries have been most and least impacted from a PD perspective below:

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