Consensus earnings estimates indicate QOQ drop in REIT earnings for Q1 2024

Consensus estimates for US equity real estate investment trusts indicate a median 2.4% quarter-over-quarter drop in funds from operations per share for the first quarter of 2024.

However, on an annual basis, funds from operations (FFO) per share is forecast to tick up by a median of 0.1%, according to a consensus of analyst estimates compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The analysis includes US equity REITs with market capitalizations greater than $200 million as of April 15, 2024, and three or more S&P Capital IQ estimates for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2024.

Funds from operations per share

Estimates for industrial REITs indicate the largest year-over-year growth, up 4.6% on a median basis.

The "other retail" sector, which includes single-tenant retail and outlet center REITs, followed next, with forecast year-over-year growth of 3.2% on a median basis.

The residential sector ranked third, with estimated year-over-year growth of 3.0% on a median basis.

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On the other end, estimates for hotel REITs indicate the largest year-over-year decline in FFO per share, down by a median of 10.6%.

Diversified REITs were the sole property sector estimated to report a quarterly growth in FFO per share, up 2.3% on a median basis.

Adjusted funds from operations per share

When looking at adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share estimates for the first quarter of 2024, the majority of REITs are forecast to report declines.

The estimates indicate a 1.7% year-over-year drop on a median basis and a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter dip.

Industrial REITs are estimated to report the largest annual growth in AFFO per share at a median of 4.1%, while the hotel sector is estimated to report a median 25.4% year-over-year drop.

Estimates for shopping center REITs show the largest quarterly growth at a median of 13.4%.

EBITDA

Earnings estimates for the US REIT sector show a median 3.7% year-over-year increase in EBITDA but are down a very slight 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

All REIT property sectors are forecast to report annual increases year over year on a median basis.

Estimates for the "other retail" sector show the largest annual growth in EBITDA at a median of 21.7%, followed by the industrial sector at a median 11.5%.