Trump's historic tariff increase challenges global trade and economic growth

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Four months since Liberation Day, President Trump has announced a new tariff framework that raises US tariffs to a 90-year high of 18%. What do we know so far, and what remains unclear?

The US has upended the global trading system embedded in the WTO, USMCA, and numerous bilateral agreements. Trust among nations has eroded and global commerce has become more fragile.

The US Treasury reported collecting $108 billion from tariffs through June, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick hopes to collect $50 billion each month. That means Americans are paying more for imports. But who bears the cost – industry or consumers – and with what impact?

The Trump administration used tariffs to seek political commitments from Mexico, Canada, India, Brazil, and others. What’s less clear are the longer-term political effects on issues like North American industrialization or India’s strategic role countering China.

Tariffs also became a tool to secure investment pledges from corporations like Apple, and market-access deals from Japan and the EU. But supply chain uncertainty has also slowed domestic investment. What will be the broader impact on US economic growth?

Going forward, sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could be in the crosshairs.  As President Trump promised, there’s “more to come.”