29 January 2025 | 04:05 UTC — Insight Blog
Asia's top emitters show limited progress in meeting 2030 reduction targets
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The top greenhouse gas emitters in Asia – China and India -- have submitted their inaugural biennial transparency reports, highlighting the challenges they face on the path to achieving their 2030 emission reduction targets.
The biennial transparency reports, a UN-initiated reporting instrument to track individual countries’ emissions as well as progress in meeting their nationally determined (NDC) contributions, namely the climate targets committed under the Paris Agreement, shows Asia’s overall decarbonization progress appears far from satisfactory.
In the latest biennial transparency reports, China reported that by 2021, it had reduced its carbon intensity by 50.9% from the 2005 level. Meanwhile, India reported a 36% reduction in carbon intensity from the 2005 level as of 2020.
Both nations have utilized the reduction in carbon intensity -- defined as the decrease in carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product -- as the benchmark for establishing their NDCs. By 2030, China has pledged to reduce its carbon intensity by 65% from the 2005 level, while India has committed to a 45% reduction from the same base year.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ Inflection Scenario forecasts, China’s carbon intensity is projected at 441.2 mtCO2 per real million dollars by 2030, slightly outperforming the NDC requirement of 446.6 mtCO2 per real million dollars. In contrast, India’s carbon intensity is expected to be 618 mtCO2 per real million dollars by 2030, indicating a significant shortfall in meeting the NDC target.
Based on available data, weekly average China Certified Emissions Reduction Program prices were Yuan 89.45/mtCO2e ($12.44/mtCO2e) at Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange, Yuan 83.23/mtCO2e ($11.58/mtCO2e) at Sichuan United Environment Exchange, and Yuan 71.64/mtCO2e ($9.97/mtCO2e) at China Emissions Exchange (Shenzhen), according to MVGX.
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