Return-to-market EV households are increasingly migrating to gas-powered vehicles

One of the most interesting findings in these fuel-type migration patterns is that the movement from EVs to hybrids rose just slightly (4.6 PP) from September to November and was essentially flat when viewed over the longer term (-0.1 PP).

Given that both EVs and hybrids offer reduced emissions, one might expect a household disenchanted with its EV would migrate to a hybrid rather than reverting to a gasoline vehicle. Instead, the data shows that returning EV households are moving to traditional ICE vehicles despite the emissions ramifications.

The propensity of returning EV households to remain loyal to the fuel type varies substantially by brand, as illustrated by Chart 2 below. At one end of the spectrum, Lucid saw a 21.4 PP increase in movement to EVs, while Audi experienced a 28.6% drop—a range of 50 PP. Of the 10 brands with the smallest declines in EV loyalty (including three brands that posted gains), four are EV disrupters (all but one of the disrupters on the chart). This strong EV fuel-type loyalty has been part of Tesla’s DNA since launch, and we now see it emerging among other disrupters as well. These disrupters focus solely on EVs, which may contribute to the EV loyalty of their customers.

EV migration patterns also vary significantly at the model level. Households with a relatively high-volume EV in the garage are more likely to stay with an EV than households owning lower-volume units. (See Charts 3, 4 and 5 below.) Chart 5, which summarizes the findings from Charts 3 and 4, shows the changes in EV loyalty for the 10 higher-volume models versus the lower-volume units. Overall, the average decline of 5.5 PP in EV loyalty among the high-volume models is less than one-third of the 17.7 PP decline for the lower-volume units. 

The five models with the lowest declines are the five Teslas, three of which actually had increases in fuel-type loyalty after the end of the tax credit.