Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodity Prices See First Rise in Two Months

Markets rallied last week as the US sharply cut tariff rates on over half of Chinese imports, from 145% to 30% for at least 90 days, temporarily easing trade tensions and boosting risk appetite.

The S&P 500 jumped 5.3%, the dollar strengthened, and Treasury yields rose, though they ended the week off their highs. Inflation stayed moderate, with little evidence yet of tariff pass-through to prices, though retailers have begun warning of hikes.

Even with weaker consumer sentiment and soft housing figures, improved spending and inventory data led S&P Global Market Intelligence to raise its Q2 GDP forecast to 1.1%. Given last week’s developments on global trade, and the associated boost to market sentiment, our risk outlook to global commodity prices has now moved to the upside. However, underlying demand remains tepid and markets well supplied leading to a generally flat forecast for the second half of 2025.

The Material Price Index (MPI) by S&P Global Market Intelligence increased by 1.9% last week, the first weekly rise since March. The increase was broad, with nine of the ten subcomponents rising. The MPI is approximately 10.8% lower than it was the same week a year ago, indicating a general easing in commodity prices over the past 12 months.

Energy markets were the key mover for the aggregate MPI last week, with the sub-index rising by 2.6%, driven primarily by a sharp rally in oil prices. Brent Crude Oil, the international benchmark, rose by 5.6% to a weekly average of $65.59 per barrel from $62.15 the previous week, marking its strongest weekly increase since mid-January. The price surge was mostly sentiment-driven, as easing US-China trade tensions raised global expectations of stronger future oil demand. The improved trade prospects, alongside recovering Chinese and Indian crude imports, contributed to the bullish outlook.

In addition to oil, nonferrous metals showed strength, with the sub-index rising by 2.6% as all six base metals posted gains. Aluminum, lead, and zinc were especially strong, each recording their largest weekly increases so far this year, as prices rebounded from recent softness. Average weekly zinc spot prices, for instance, rose by 3.8% from $2587.4 the previous week to $2686.5 per metric ton last week. Improved sentiment around global manufacturing — supported by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs — was the reason for the price uptick.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.