US Monthly GDP Index for November 2022

Monthly GDP rose 0.4% in November following a 0.5% increase in October that was revised higher by 0.2 percentage point. The increase in November was more than accounted for by a sharp gain in net exports. Domestic final sales declined in November, mainly reflecting declines in residential and nonresidential fixed investment. Averaged over October and November, monthly GDP was 3.0% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest estimate of 2.6% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.5% decline (not annualized) in December.

Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.