ECONOMICS COMMENTARY — Nov 15, 2022
Monthly PMI Bulletin: November 2022
By Jingyi Pan
The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Monthly PMI Bulletin. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.
The global slowdown deepened at the start of the fourth quarter with both manufacturing and services performance deteriorating and output contracting at a faster rate. Demand conditions worsened while prices remained elevated despite inflationary pressures easing. Concurrently, business confidence fell sharply in October.
The J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index - produced by S&P Global - posted 49.0 in October, down from 49.6 in September. This marked the third straight month of global contraction and at the fastest pace since June 2020, albeit still mild overall.
A faster contraction in demand in October, weighed on global private sector output with the S&P Global Sector PMI data showing only two of the eight sector groups tracked - technology and healthcare - registering growth in output. National PMI data meanwhile highlighted that economic activity declined in most major economies including the US, China, the euro area, UK, Russia and Australia. On the other hand, Japan, India and Brazil saw private sector output expand.
Amid the decline in output, and alongside improved logistics, upward pressure on raw material prices and shipping rates cooled, altogether leading to slower input cost and output price inflation in the month of October. To some extent, this is reflective of central bank tightening taking effect to rein in inflation, although the still-elevated inflation rates warrant continued attention on the monetary policy front. The amalgamation of prospects for further rate rises and the backdrop of faltering global demand therefore do little to support confidence as business optimism slipped to an over two-year low at the start of the fourth quarter.
Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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