Summary
Net interest margins should trough soon, but the pace of relief will be dependent on how quickly banks can lower their deposit costs as the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy. While the Fed’s pivot could help reduce concerns over deteriorating credit quality, interest rates would need to move notably lower to silence the Street’s fears, particularly over banks’ exposure to commercial real estate. Meanwhile, if history is a guide, the results of the US presidential election in November could dramatically shift the regulatory landscape regarding banks.
During this webinar, Nathan Stovall, Director of FIG Research will present S&P Global Market Intelligence's proprietary projections for commercial bank performance and discuss how the outcome of the US Presidential election could impact the operating and regulatory environment for banks with three leading bank policy advocates and analysts.
Isaac Boltansky
BTIG
Managing Director & Director of Policy Research, BTIG
Isaac Boltansky is a Managing Director and Director of Policy Research at BTIG. In this role he is responsible for coordinating the firm’s Washington policy analysis and forecasting how potential policy shifts could impact investors, corporations, and other market participants. He focuses particularly on financial services, housing policy, digital assets, cannabis policy, tax legislation, and Congress. Prior to BTIG, Mr. Boltansky was the Director of Policy Research at Compass Point Research and Trading. He also served as a Research Analyst on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Congressional Oversight Panel and as a Research Analyst at EJF Capital.
Naomi Camper
American Bankers Association
Chief Policy Officer, American Bankers Association
As ABA’s chief policy officer, Naomi Gendler Camper leads the ABA’s policy and advocacy functions, including government relations, regulatory policy and compliance, economic research and the office of strategic engagement. Her division also includes specialized groups, such as the Card Policy Council and BAFT, ABA’s global transaction banking subsidiary.
Prior to joining the ABA in June of 2018, Naomi spent 13 years as a managing director at JPMorgan Chase in a variety of roles. As head of federal government relations from 2005 to 2012, Naomi was responsible for leading and expanding the firm’s engagement with Capitol Hill and the administration during a time of significant change to the banking policy and regulatory landscape. She also served as head of consumer public policy and ran JPMorgan Chase’s Office of Nonprofit Engagement.
From 2001 until 2005, Naomi was the Democratic staff director of the Senate Subcommittee on Financial Institutions for Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.).
Naomi also practiced tax and financial services law at the Washington law firm of Wilmer, Cutler & Pickering, and was associate tax counsel at the Investment Company Institute, the national trade association for the mutual fund industry.
Naomi holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School, a master in public policy from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and a B.A. from Columbia University. She serves on the boards of the Cities for Financial Empowerment Fund, Temple Sinai of Washington, D.C., and the Gendler Grapevine Project. In April of 2021, she was selected to serve on the FDIC’s Advisory Committee on Economic Inclusion (ComE-In). Naomi is a native of Andover, Mass., and lives in Chevy Chase, Md., with her husband and three children.
Paul Merski
Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA)
EVP, Congressional Relations and Strategy, Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA)
Paul Merski is group executive vice president, congressional relations and strategy for the Independent Community Bankers of America® (ICBA). Merski leads ICBA’s congressional relations teams and oversees ICBA’s legislative and political action committee initiatives.
Merski has more than 30 years of experience in legislative and economic policy development and analysis for some of the most prominent organizations in Washington, D.C. Before joining ICBA, Merski served on Capitol Hill as the chief economist for the Joint Economic Committee and as senior tax and banking policy advisor to U.S. Senator Connie Mack. Merski also was director of fiscal policy for Citizens for a Sound Economy, director of fiscal affairs for the Tax Foundation and served as an economist for the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A frequent speaker at industry events, Merski is often quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Politico, American Banker, The Hill, and other trade publications and has appeared on the Fox Business Network and Bloomberg Television. Merski has been named a top Washington lobbyist every year since 2018 by “The Hill” publication.
Merski received a BA in economics from The Catholic University of America, completed graduate work in economics at George Washington University, and earned his MBA with top honors from George Mason University.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Nathan Stovall
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Director of FIG Research
Nathan Stovall is the director of the financial institutions research team for S&P Global Market Intelligence, which is responsible for data-driven news and research focused on banks and insurers. Nathan has 20 years of experience covering the financial institutions sector, with a focus on U.S. banks.
He is the author of the banking blog, Street Talk, and host of the podcast by the same name. His in-depth analysis of the banking industry, including a focus on community banks, can be found on SPGMI's Research & Analysis feature, which includes historical and forward-looking performance figures.
During his tenure, he has regularly covered and participated on the conference circuit as a speaker and moderator of panels and webinars focused on major issues facing banks. He has been quoted in a number of trade publications and the national press, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Economist and has appeared on CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business News and NPR's Planet Money.
Nathan holds a Bachelor of Arts degrees from Washington & Lee University, where he majored in business journalism.