Egypt ramps up LNG imports amid domestic gas shortage, summer demand

Egypt may have procured around 150 cargoes through to the summer of 2026, signaling a major policy shift as the country faces a widening gap between domestic gas production and rising energy demand, according to multiple market participants.

Once a regional gas exporter, Egypt is now firmly positioning itself as a long-term LNG importer to avoid the widespread power cuts that have plagued recent summers.

Of the 150 cargoes, the wide consensus states that around 50 would be to meet 2025 needs and the rest would help satiate 2026 demand.

Some media reports also suggest the procurement could be as big as 290 cargoes spread across 2025-2027.

The true extent of LNG demand in Egypt has been a contentious issue in the market over the past few months, as the country's demand could further tighten the market and increase pressure during the summer months, which are already experiencing strong competition from European injection demand and seasonal demand in Asia.

Some of the counterparties that have been awarded include Aramco with 27 cargoes, Vitol (27 cargoes), Trafigura (27 cargoes), Hartree (20 cargoes with an option to add nine more), Shell (20 cargoes), BGN (11 cargoes) and Socar (8 cargoes), according to multiple market participants.

Aramco, Trafigura and Vitol declined to comment, while Hartree, Shell, BGN, Socar, and EGPC were unavailable for comment at the time of writing.

Market participants expect the price level of the procurement to be around the TTF plus 70 cents/MMBtu to TTF plus $1/MMBtu, depending on the period of procurement.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed LNG DES East Mediterranean Marker for July delivery at $12.422/MMBtu on June 13, a 35-cent/MMBtu discount to July TTF hub futures price or a premium of 12 cents/MMBtu to the DES Northwest Europe.

Accounting for additional costs such as 50 cents/MMBtu for extended payment terms, 50 cents/MMBtu for the Suez Canal fee and 20 cents/MMBtu for additional freight from Turkey to Egypt, the July DES Egypt price would be around $13.622/MMBtu on June 12.

Earlier in 2025, Egypt set a price cap of $14/MMBtu for its LNG imports. The deferred payment extends up to one year, according to market participants.

The country imported 2.2 million mt or 31 cargoes so far in 2025, according to Platts data. In addition to this, Jordan's Aqaba terminal has seen imports of 550,000 mt or eight cargoes, most of which are expected to be for meeting Egypt's needs.

The combined imports this year have already reached 83% of the total imports in 2024, when the majority demand kicked in only starting in July.

Egypt entered into agreements in February 2025, valued at approximately $3 billion with Shell and TotalEnergies to procure 60 shipments of LNG for the year, according to market sources.

The country also had a four-cargo tender and a strip of 15 cargoes awarded in Q1 2025, according to market participants.

The trend clearly highlights that the company has transitioned from spot tender purchases to mid-term bilateral deals.

Market participants noted this shift not only allows Egypt to have more flexibility and counterparty-specific terms in the deals, but also cushions them from the spot volatility of Dutch TTF. Moreover, early procurement is crucial for the country from an energy security perspective.

"With Egypt's gas output falling 30% between 2021 and 2024 and domestic production at the lowest levels since mid-2016, LNG imports have been strong since the nation's return to the market in mid-2024," analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights said.

"Limited near-term domestic gas additions are expected, and there is a lengthy timeline for upgrading pipeline capacity from Israel and developing additional fields in Israel and Cyprus for delivery to Egypt. Thus, in addition to increasing our import forecast, we are not forecasting an end to LNG imports and a return to significant LNG exports until the start of the 2030s," the analysts said.

FSRU capacity and potential delays

Egypt currently only has one floating storage and regasification unit -- Hoegh Galleon -- operational at its Ain Sokhna LNG terminal. However, three additional FSRUs are expected to be deployed to support the country's summer LNG import needs.

The Energos Esmiko, previously stationed at Jordan's Aqaba terminal, left Jordan on June 4 and is currently anchored at Ain Sokhna, undergoing maintenance. The FSRU is expected to start operations in the second half of 2025.

The Energos Power, which has been anchored at Egypt's Alexandria port since May 24, is also undergoing maintenance and is expected to serve Egypt to procure its summer demand cargoes.

Finally, the fourth FSRU is expected to come from Turkey under the agreement signed May 13. Market participants expect it to be Ertugrul Gazi FSRU -- currently stationed at Dortyol LNG terminal -- given its low summer utilization.

With new FSRUs yet to start operations in Egypt, the import capacity appears to be limited and could cause potential delays heading into summer.

"The biggest issues will be FSRU bottlenecks," said an Atlantic-based trader.

At the time of writing, three vessels are waiting at the anchorage to deliver into Egypt, according to Commodities at Sea data.

Of this, LNG ship Arctic Voyager, which was initially expected to deliver into Jordan's Aqaba terminal on May 22, was seen waiting close to the terminal for around 12 days. The carrier on June 3 changed its destination to Egypt's Ain Sokhna terminal, but the ship still appears to be floating close to Egypt, CAS data shows.

Similarly, LNG carrier Minerva Amorgos, which left Greece on June 3, was expected to reach Egypt on June 5, but has been waiting to deliver since June 6.

SM Albatross also reached the region on June 12 as per schedule, but has yet to deliver.

SK Resolute reached Egypt on June 6, was finally seen moving close to Hoegh Galleon on June 13 after waiting around for a week and was delivered on June 15.

The recent deliveries of Paris Knutsen and Gaslog Gibraltar also saw a wait of three and seven days, respectively, before they could deliver.

"The capacity is likely not there just yet -- Egypt has one FSRU operating and another two have just arrived in the nation's ports but don't appear to be operational just yet (and one of those arrived from Jordan, which now no longer has FSRU capacity of its own)," Mehrun Etebari, director for Global LNG at Commodity Insights, said. "So, maximizing fuel oil and gas rationing, both are highly likely."

Nevertheless, market participants agree that if Egypt is able to deploy the FSRUs as per schedule, in theory, it should be able to take in the strong volumes of LNG procured for the season.

Geopolitical Risks

The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, which have led to the suspension of operations at Leviathan and Karish fields offshore Israel on June 13, could further worsen the situation in Egypt.

The pause, if extended, could translate into more pronounced LNG demand for Egypt.

"For every three days of outage on Israeli exports, Egypt and Jordan will need an extra LNG cargo," Laurent Ruseckas, Research and Analysis Executive Director at Commodity Insights, said. "To fully replace Israeli pipeline imports, Egypt and Jordan between them would require another 10-12 LNG cargoes per month -- enough to put upward pressure on NWE, TTF and JKM."

According to the Israeli energy ministry, Israeli gas exports to Egypt and Jordan increased 13.3% year over year in 2024, reaching 13.2 Bcm, which represented about 49% of Israel's total gas production for the year.