French winter power prices down sharply as EDF lifts nuclear target

London — French winter power prices fell sharply July 3 after nuclear operator EDF lifted its 2020 nuclear output target to 315-325 TWh from 300 TWh.

French Q4 2020 baseload power fell 10% and was last seen trading OTC at Eur55.15/MWh after settling at Eur61.23/MWh on July 2, exchange data showed.

In mid-April EDF cut its annual French nuclear output target to 300 TWh with restrictions on movement due to the coronavirus pandemic hampering reactor maintenance.

Before the pandemic, EDF had set a 2020 French nuclear output target of 375-390 TWh.

On July 2, EDF revised the target to 315-325 TWh, this reflecting "the adjustment of the duration of planned outages for 2020, taking into account the conditions observed on sites for resuming activities."

Output estimates for 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged in a range of 330-360 TWh "at this stage," the company said.

French nuclear output in the first half of 2020 fell 15% to 172 TWh with June down 26% on the year at a record low of 21 TWh (29 GW average), grid operator data shows.

"If EDF [were] to meet its target of 300 TWh, then Q3 output would need to fall as low as 24 GW average. I doubt that fleet output can move below 28 GW on a sustained [monthly average] basis," S&P Global Platts Analytics' Giuliano Bordignon said June 30.

The mid-range of the revised forecast range would lift average nuclear output by 4.5 GW for the remainder of 2020, with EDF already adjusting reactor maintenance schedules with most reactors now expected to return earlier than scheduled in April.

In detail, EDF brought forward return dates for 23 reactors, of which 16 are now scheduled to return four weeks earlier than planned, resulting in an overall rise in availability of 12.7 TWh, a Platts analysis of EDF transparency notes shows.

Q4 was the most affected, accounting for 8.2 TWh, with Q3 availability up 1.6 TWh and Q1 2021 some 2.9 TWh higher, the data show.