California utilities initiate power outages as Santa Ana winds ignite wildfires

Santa Ana wind-fueled wildfires have led to over 400,000 outages across Southern California, as utilities shut off power to prevent electricity infrastructure from becoming a source of ignition and as increased wind led to lower year-on-year power prices.

Southern California Edison, Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and San Diego Gas & Electric each initiated Public Safety Power Shutoffs, which is a temporary power outage to a specific area to reduce the risk of fires caused by electric infrastructure.

"Currently, customers experiencing a power outage should expect that it could take up to 48 hours before our crews are able to respond," LADW&P said in a Jan. 8 statement. "High winds and fire conditions continue to present hazards for our crews and can affect response times and restoration efforts."

LADWP reported 135,679 customers without power as of 8 am PT Jan. 8, and had restored power to 77,797 customers since the start of the storm, the utility said. About 40% of the outages are due to LADWP crews having to de-energize circuits due to the high winds and to support for firefighting efforts.

SCE reported 156,794 PSPS outages by about 11:45 am Jan. 8. SDG&E reported 8,991 PSPS outages, with an additional 56,484 additional customers that could be affected.

Across the region, 400,816 customers were without power as of noon Jan. 8, according to poweroutage.us.

Market impacts

Wind-powered generation accounted for nearly 16% of the total fuel mix Jan. 7, the highest level so far this year, according to California Independent System Operator data.

Wind generation in the SP15 trading hub was forecast to peak around 1.8 GW on Jan. 8 but started the day 61.4% above forecast, according to CAISO data. Looking ahead, SP15 wind was forecast to fall to a peak of around 675 MW on Jan. 9 and 2.23 GW Jan. 10. CAISO has 8.345 GW of installed wind resources, according to its latest Key Statistics report.

With more wind generation, wholesale power prices have trended lower year on year. SP15 on-peak day-ahead traded in the mid-$30s/MWh for Jan. 9 delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange, while NP15 on-peak day-ahead was valued in the upper $40s/MWh. In comparison, SP15 on-peak day-ahead locational marginal prices averaged about $62/MWh in January 2024, while NP15 on-peak LMP averaged about $80.25/MWh, according to CAISO data.

Electricity demand in the CAISO service area continued its downtrend Jan. 8 and was set to peak at 26.92 GW, pacing 6.5% below the level recorded a year ago, according to grid operator data.

Looking ahead, the grid operator forecast a 0.5% slump in its peakload demand to 26.78 GW Jan. 9 before tripping an additional 2.1% to 26.21 GW Jan. 10. Into the weekend, load projections were likely to sink further, down 5.9% to 24.65 GW Jan. 11, which would mark its lowest value since late November 2024 and trend 12.1% below the year-ago level. By Jan. 12, CAISO peakload demand was expected to begin to recover before trending at 27.40 GW at the start of the workweek.

Extremely critical fire weather area

The US National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has issued an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area along portions of the Southern California Coast.

"Strong high pressure over parts of the Great Basin and low pressure dropping into the Gulf of California will continue to support Santa Ana winds and a dangerous fire weather event over portions of Southern California on [Jan. 8]," the US National Weather Service said in its daily forecast discussion.

Sustained winds reaching 30 to 40 mph, with stronger winds in the terrain, along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the dangerous conditions, the weather service said. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to continue Jan. 9 for portions of Southern California.

"This is a highly dangerous windstorm that's creating extreme fire risk – and we're not out of the woods," Governor Gavin Newsom said in a Jan. 7 statement. "We're already seeing the destructive impacts with this fire in Pacific Palisades that grew rapidly in a matter of minutes."

The state secured Fire Management Assistance Grants from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to help ensure the availability of vital resources to suppress Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire, which both ignited Jan. 7 in Los Angeles County. At President Joe Biden's direction, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell will travel to California on Jan. 10 to assess on-the-ground community needs, according to a Jan. 8 statement from the White House.

Six fires have ignited Jan. 7-8 and have burned a combined 26,978 acres as of around 2:15 pm PT Jan. 8, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. All are 0% contained.

• Palisades Fire: started Jan. 7, 11,802 acres burned
• Eaton Fire: started Jan. 7, 10,600 acres burned
• Hurst Fire: started Jan. 7, 505 acres burned
• Lidia Fire: started Jan, 8, 50 acres burned
• Woodley Fire: started Jan. 8, 30 acres burned
• Olivas Fire: started Jan. 8, 11 acres burned

The LADWP's water system crews are providing all available water possible to the Pacific Palisades area to support firefighting efforts, the utility said in a 10 pm Jan. 7 statement.

"Despite multiple attempts to reach them, we were unable to get water to our tanks at higher elevations–due to the fires–to refill them as fast as they are being drained," LADW&P said in the statement. "The tanks are impacted by fire and our access to them is not possible due to fire in the vicinity. We are in close contact with [Los Angeles Fire Department] and will continue to coordinate our response with them. Water remains available in Palisades but is limited in some areas at elevation."

The National Interagency Fire Center is in continuous contact with CalFire and is ready to deploy any additional resources that are needed – including additional firefighting personnel and equipment, according to the White House. Biden has directed the Department of Defense to rapidly provide additional firefighting personnel and capabilities.