Philippines returns to Vietnam rice market ahead of January import window

The Philippines is stepping back into the regional rice market with renewed urgency, ramping up bids for Vietnamese supplies for January shipment as its import ban imposed in September has now been extended through December, market sources told Platts Nov. 18.

With a four-month halt on imports and only a narrow January window for entry, Philippine buyers risk being shut out of supply if they do not lock in deals early, pushing them to compete more aggressively with other importers for fragrant rice.

On Aug. 6, the Philippines, one of the world's largest rice importers, suspended rice imports for 60 days from Sept. 1 to support domestic farmers impacted by falling prices during the harvest season.

Later, on Oct. 6, Department of Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. announced that the suspension would be extended until April 2026, with a limited January import window allowing around 300,000 mt to augment the supply.

Now, Executive Order 102, signed Oct. 30 by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., officially extended the ban through year-end.

'We need to book ahead'

A Mindanao-based buyer was already securing supply: "We need to book ahead so once SPS is released, we can immediately ship rice to the Philippines." The buyer had already purchased Vietnamese rice and booked shipments for January.

When asked whether importers are unhappy with the government's order to ban rice imports, the buyer explained that many importers choose not to speak out because they fear not being issued an SPS permit. The importer confirmed this, saying, "Yes, true."

A Davao-based buyer similarly reported strong demand for Vietnamese rice for January shipment and declined to comment further due to concerns over SPS license risks.

A Sanitary and Phytosanitary Import Clearance from the Bureau of Plant Industry is required for all rice importers in the Philippines before they can import.

Early customs data highlights the impact of import restrictions. Rice exports to the Philippines from January to September dropped 9% year over year to 2.9 million metric tons, according to preliminary Vietnam Customs data. Thailand exported 161,358 mt to the Philippines from January to July, down 47.4% year over year, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

More inquiries, but closing deals difficult

Vietnamese exporters, however, say inquiries have increased sharply ahead of the January window.

"There is big demand from the Philippines for January shipment," a Ho Chi Minh City-based exporter said, adding that buyers were seeking 5,000 mt, with potential for more if the supply allowed.

But traders said closing deals remains difficult due to price gaps.

"Philippine buyers have returned to the market for January 2026 shipment, but their bids are below current market levels and even below production cost, so sellers are unwilling to conclude deals," another HCMC-based exporter said.

Market participants are now watching to see whether bids will rise enough to entice Vietnamese sellers, who say current Philippine prices remain too low.

Bids for Vietnam Fragrant 5% rice were heard around $410-$415/mt FOB, while offers remained higher at $425-$430/mt FOB.

Platts assessed Vietnam Fragrant 5% rice at $424/mt FOB Nov. 18, down $70/mt since Aug. 6, when the initial suspension was announced.

Shipments pushed to January

A third HCMC-based seller said rice contracts signed in late September for November delivery were deferred after the ban was extended through December, with shipments now pushed to January.

Regional suppliers echo that outlook. A Bangkok-based seller said competition remains tight among exporters but added, "We have some demand, but Vietnam should take most of the quantity."

How aggressively Philippine buyers raise bids in the coming weeks will determine whether Vietnam's exporters commit volumes or hold out for higher prices as regional competition intensifies.