Thai Hom Mali rice slumps to eight-month low, further drop limited: source

The prices of Thai Hom Mali 100% Grade B rice have fallen to nearly an eight-month low as the crops entered the market, data from Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, showed Nov. 10.

Platts assessed the Thai Hom Mali 100% Grade B 2025/26 rice crop at $922/metric tons FOB FCL on Nov. 10, down $145/mt month over month; however, it is up $83/mt year over year. The price was last lower than this on March 17, at $909/mt FOB FCL.

While the recent decline has been steep, market participants suggest that further falls may be limited due to crop damage caused by flooding in key rice-growing regions.

Bangkok and its neighboring provinces are at heightened risk of flooding due to increased water discharge from the Chao Phraya Barrage, following heavy inflows from northern rivers impacted by Storm Kalmaegi, as reported by the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), according to various local media reports. Typhoon Kalmaegi struck Thailand in early November 2025, resulting in heavy rainfall and potential flash floods across upper Thailand, beginning in the Northeast and spreading to the East, Central, and North regions.

Despite concerns over flooding, industry officials say the overall impact on crop conditions and prices may be limited.

"We acknowledge that recent flooding in Thailand has had some impact on crop conditions. However, the effect is not as severe as many assume. In most areas, the flooding was short-term rather than long-standing. Only a limited number of regions experienced prolonged flooding that could significantly damage the crop. In fact, when water flows in and recedes naturally, it can actually help enhance soil fertility and benefit the paddy fields," Wanniwat Kitireanglarp, deputy secretary general of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, told Platts.

He added that regarding price trends, "there is currently no strong reason for Thai rice prices to weaken. That said, we will still need to monitor the situation over the next 5–10 days to see whether the flooding worsens. We are now approaching the final monsoon wave, and the major reservoirs are already close to full capacity. As a result, the authorities must release water continuously into the Chao Phraya River system. This means that when it rains, there is little room to retain water upstream, so river levels will remain high during this period."

He noted that water management has been effective this year despite heavy rainfall, so prolonged flooding or stagnant water beyond 10 days is unlikely in most areas.

The US is one of Thailand's key markets for Hom Mali rice, known for its soft texture and signature fragrance. Despite the US government implementing a 19% tariff on imports from Thailand, there remains active demand from US consumers due to their loyalty to this variety.

The US government had set a 19% tariff on imports from Thailand, effective Aug. 1.

The US ranks as the second-largest buyer of Thai rice, importing 491,987 mt from January to July 2025, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association. This represents a 5.7% increase compared to the same period last year.

A Bangkok-based seller said that flooding has impacted both harvesting and planting. "Prices for the new Hom Mali crop have rebounded due to flooding caused by the ongoing monsoon. The Northeast, where Hom Mali rice is currently being harvested, has seen crop damage, while in the Central region, planting for the next crop has also been affected by severe flooding." The seller added that it is still monitoring how the flooding will affect the crop and prices in the near future.

Another Bangkok-based seller highlighted potential delays in harvesting. "The rainfall may make the harvesting for Thai Hom Mali to be later than usual."

However, the market exhibits uncertainty, with mixed sentiments, as it continues to assess the current situation. "The crop has probably been damaged in certain areas. We do not know the extent of the damage. I think if the price is not coming down in the next 2 weeks, it probably won't come down," said a third Bangkok-based exporter.

As Thailand navigates the impact of flooding and the arrival of the new crop, the Hom Mali rice market is expected to remain closely watched by global buyers, particularly in the US, as they balance supply concerns with strong international demand.