Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week

China's steel industry is in focus after the country's manufacturing steel demand index rose to its highest in six years. Meanwhile, biofuels are in focus with India's palm oil demand on the rise while the US biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors face challenges.

1. China's manufacturing steel demand hits 6-year high

What's happening? China's manufacturing sector's steel demand hit its highest level in six years, fueled by domestic industrial activity and a short-term export rush of steel-intensive manufactured goods. However, concerns are mounting over potential challenges in export markets due to rising trade tensions and global economic uncertainties. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed hot-rolled coil at $451/mt on April 28, down from $463/mt on April 1.

What's next? Analysts project China's steel demand to gradually decline in the coming months, as headwinds in the export markets are expected to dent the manufacturing sector's growth.

Related content: US-CHINA TRADE: China's commodity sector eyes reform, diversification to tackle challenges

2. India's palm oil demand rises amid price edge over soybean oil

What's happening? India's palm oil demand surged in April, driven by lower crude palm oil prices and a positive import margin compared to soybean oil. Palm oil is currently priced around $50/mt cheaper than soybean oil, reversing the trend from March. CPO prices dropped due to increased production in Malaysia and recent market uncertainties amid US tariff concerns. Platts assessed crude palm oil CFR West Coast India price at $1,055/mt on April 23, a 10.21% decrease from the start of the month.

What's next? Indian buyers are likely to continue favoring palm oil over soybean oil, taking advantage of current favorable conditions to restock their palm inventories. Malaysia's palm oil production uptick is expected to further pressure prices, while Indonesia continues its robust palm oil exports to India, amid a steady supply.

3. SAF blending flooding Netherlands market with HBE B tickets, closing in on IX B cap

What's happening? Cheap sustainable aviation fuel blending has generated high volumes of HBE-IX B tickets in the Dutch market, largely due to the unique position where such a product can be counted toward both the ReFuel EU Aviation mandate and road transport targets under the Renewable Energy Directive. This situation has been exacerbated by low SAF prices and a 1.2x aviation multiplier for ticket generation. Consequently, the Netherlands is reportedly nearing its 1.7% cap on feedstock derived from Part B of Annex IX of the RED.

What's next? SAF derived from feedstock listed in Annex IX A of the RED has subsequently become more in demand -- namely SAF produced from palm oil mill effluent. Market sources expect HBE-Advanced tickets will begin to command greater value and widen the HBE-IX A/HBE IX B spread.

4. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs rise 78% YTD amid uncertainties

What's happening? D4 Renewable Identification Number prices hit a 19-month high as the biodiesel and renewable diesel industry face challenges with unsupportive policies. D4 RINs have risen 78% since the start of 2025 to 111.25 cents/RIN on April 24. The industry is seeking guidance on the 45Z, and the 2026 renewable volume obligation and onward. Additionally, RINs are facing upward pressure with high feedstock prices and depressed NYMEX ULSD futures. The BO-HO spread, used as an industry tool to gauge costs and margins for biodiesel production, has risen to 151.55 cents/gal, the highest since October 2023. CBOT Soybean oil futures prices rose significantly in 2025, up 25% since Jan. 1. NYMEX ULSD, the fossil competitor, remained in the lower end since Liberation Day.

What's next? Biofuels and oil groups are asking for a robust RVO to help market stability and increase investments. The US Environmental Protection Agency is already facing delays as the RVO proposal was due in March. Additionally, the industry is asking for more guidance on the new tax credit and an extension of it. Other carbon programs supporting industry margins are also facing backlash from the current Trump administration after signing an executive order to review state carbon programs.

Related content: US corn ethanol-to-jet production outlook remains cloudy

5. Chinese PVC export prices drop amid US tariffs, Indian curbs

What's happening? Chinese PVC export prices have fallen to record lows amid weak real estate demand, oversupply and rising trade barriers, including US tariffs and expected Indian import controls. Platts assessed FOB China ethylene-based PVC at $620/mt and carbide-based PVC at $600/mt April 24, halving from early 2022 highs. Domestic prices also fell sharply, hovering around Yuan 4,790-5,050/mt since April 9. US tariffs have reduced Chinese PVC demand in Southeast Asia, especially in Vietnam. Despite weak fundamentals, Chinese PVC exports rose 11.1% month over month in March to a record 366,337 mt, with shipments to India hitting a new high.

What's next? Demand from India has weakened amid market volatility and concerns over anticipated antidumping duties on Chinese PVC, clouding the import outlook in 2025 amid a shift in Indian trade policy. Buyers are cautious, having potentially built inventories in early 2025. The implementation of India's quality control order for PVC was delayed to June, but compliance challenges remain. Meanwhile, China's PVC capacity could rise to 31.5 million mt/year by end-2025, although low margins may delay some expansions, potentially easing short-term oversupply risks, market sources said.

Reporting and analysis by Jing Zhang - Metals Market Specialist, Aditya Deval, Daniel Workman, Guadalupe Nunez, Nanda Lakhwani