INVESTORTALKS is an interview series where industry thinkers share their thoughts and perspectives on a variety of market trends and themes impacting indexing.
Indexing and artificial intelligence (AI) are democratizing access to institutional quality risk management. The S&P Riskcasting® Indices are designed to help keep risk in check, using AI to track signals of investor views on market risk and systematically adjusting allocations based on the signals received. S&P DJI joins Arnaud de Servigny to discuss how these innovative indices track the mood of the market to dynamically capture potential opportunities.
What's inside the S&P Riskcasting Index Series, and what is it designed to do?
S&P DJI: The index series is a rules-based, systematic multi-asset strategy that incorporates equity and fixed income. It uses a risk aversion signal to determine three different market states: bullish, neutral, or bearish. Based on the determined market state, the S&P Riskcasting Indices will allocate to different equity or fixed income indices. For example, the S&P 500® Riskcasting Index uses the S&P 500 and the S&P 10-Year Treasury Note Futures Index as its components, whereas the S&P 500 Low Volatility Riskcasting Index uses the S&P 500, S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, and S&P 10-Year Treasury Note Futures Index as its three components.
How does the risk aversion signal use S&P 500 options to measure the mood of the market?
Arnaud de Servigny: Generally, looking at risk in the finance industry, we tend to have backward-looking information on volatility and things like that. In a way, it is like looking in the rearview mirror while driving a car. What we want to do, however, is to look at what is going on right now or in the near future, and for this type of analysis we look at option markets. In the option markets, there are many different participants with many different views, and it is the diversity of these views that is interesting. If the overall market mood evolves in one direction or another, then this is something that is likely to have an impact on market performance, especially the equity market, which is what we want to capture.