BLOG — Aug 02, 2021
US Monthly GDP Index for June 2021
By Ben Herzon and William Magee
Monthly GDP was essentially unchanged (0.0%) in June following the same reading in May.
The flat reading in June mainly reflected a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures that was essentially offset by declines in net exports and nonfarm inventory investment. From March to June, monthly GDP rose at a 2.2% average annual rate, and the level of GDP in June was actually 0.1% below the second-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 6.7% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter are increases in monthly GDP over July, August, and September averaging 0.8% (not annualized) per month.
Our index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) https://ihsmarkit.com/products/us-monthly-gdp-index.html is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.