Meeting 1.5-degree C target a 'tall order' as warmer reality sets in

Thousands of corporate, political and environmental leaders from around the world kicked off the annual Climate Week conference in New York City on Sept. 17 by calling for the phaseout of fossil fuels and an immediate economy-wide effort to halt greenhouse gas emissions.

The event's urgent messages and slogans of "we can" and "we will" come amid a sober new reality. Barring drastic action, the world is now all but certain to miss the most ambitious and sought-after target under the Paris Agreement on climate change — limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C from pre-industrial levels.

"It's not impossible that we could still meet 1.5 C, but it's a tall order," Adam Scaife, head of long-range climate prediction at Britain's Met Office, said in an interview ahead of the conference. "We basically need to rapidly move to zero net emissions if we're going to do that, I mean rapidly. And we're not close to doing that."

Scaife's office led a recent World Meteorological Organization report that projected with 66% certainty that warming will reach a record 1.5 degrees for at least one year between 2023 and 2027.

"We've had meaningful momentum, we've seen solar and wind prices come down, a proliferation of electric vehicles on the road," Laura Corb, McKinsey's sustainability practice lead for North America, said during Climate Week's four-hour opening ceremony. "We've gone from few executives or individuals even having heard of net-zero to now-widespread commitments by companies and countries, but the reality is we're nowhere near where we need to be. We're on track for 2.5 or 3 degrees by the end of the century."

Scaife said average global temperatures will rise "at least" 1.2 degrees and could jump 1.4 degrees from pre-industrial levels by 2024 as Pacific Ocean water heated by El Niño pushes up global surface temperatures. By the end of this decade, a 1.5-degree increase could already be in the rear mirror, modeling by the Met Office and other science organizations shows.

Climate Week NYC, held the same week as the United Nations Climate Ambition Summit, is focused on immediate necessary actions as well as looking ahead and exploring new opportunities. It also is meant to set the stage for the upcoming COP28 climate negotiations in the United Arab Emirates.

Many speakers said the conversation must shift from how to implement needed actions to just getting the job done.

"We're clear on where we need to go," Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, told Climate Week participants. "We need 1.5-aligned commitments across the board. Which sectors can come forward to demonstrate what is needed to course-correct and get us on track for the Paris Agreement?"

Resolve amid troubling data

Although the aim of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to keep warming to "well below 2 degrees," the treaty's aspirational 1.5-degree goal has emerged as a key target for nations hoping to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Many regions are already experiencing major effects, and scientists are increasingly able to link natural disasters to climate change.

Greenhouse gas emissions rose 1% in 2022 fueled in part by a greater reliance on coal-fired generation in Europe and on natural gas in the US, the International Energy Agency reported in March.

The summer of 2023 clocked in as the warmest on record. And for each fraction of warming, destructive and costly heat waves, storms and droughts are projected to worsen. As of Sept. 11, the US had logged 23 weather and climate disasters in 2023 that each exceeded $1 billion in losses, exceeding the 2018-2022 average of 18 such events, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The UN Environment Programme also warned in a Sept. 14 report that climate change is now undermining 85% of the world's sustainable development goals for 2030.

Organizers of the more than 400 Climate Week events held across New York City say the business community and nations already have the tools to change the emissions trajectory and transition away from fossil fuels.

"We need to start implementing at a speed that will make the Industrial Revolution look like a stroll in the park," said Helen Clarkson, CEO of Climate Group, the nonprofit that runs Climate Week. "Speed and scale are key, and we have to be determined."

S&P Global Commodity Insights produces content for distribution on S&P Capital IQ Pro.