USDA sees US corn, soybean output rising on year in 2021-22

New Delhi — The production of US corn and soybean is likely to rise on the year in the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August), the US Department of Agriculture said in its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook Feb. 19.

Corn production in the US in 2021-22 is estimated at 15.15 billion bushels, up 6.8% from 2020-21's estimated output of 14.18 billion bushels, while soybean production is set to rise 9.4% on the year to 4.525 billion bushels.

"Current new crop soybean futures prices relative to corn, supported by strong Chinese demand and the tightest stocks-to-use ratio since 2013-14 are expected to boost soybean plantings, while higher corn prices are also expected to encourage planting," the report said.

Area under corn is seen rising by 1.2 million acres to 92 million acres in 2021-22, and soybean acres are seen rising to 90 million acres up 6.9 million acres on the year.

Expectations of return to a normal weather is also supporting higher yield estimates. The USDA has estimated US 2021-22 corn yield at 179.5 bu/acre up 4.4% from 2020-21, while soybean yield is seen at 50.8 bu/acre, up 1.2% on year.

Corn exports to rise, soybean fall

The USDA has estimated US corn exports in 2021-22 at 2.65 billion bushels, slightly higher than 2.6 billion bushels estimated for 2020-21. "Corn exports are up reflecting expectations of global trade growth and continued robust demand from China," USDA said.

US corn ending stocks for 2021-22 is seen at 1.55 billion bushels, up 3.3% on year, while domestic consumption is also seen rising to 12.475 billion bushels from 12.025 billion bushels in 2020-21.

Estimates for corn used for ethanol and feed and residual are also seen higher on the year in 2021-22. Corn used for ethanol estimates are seen at 5.2 billion bushels in 2021-22, higher than 4.95 billion bushels in 2020-21, while use for feed and residual is seen at 5.85 billion bushels, higher than 5.65 billion bushels this year.

"Corn used for ethanol is projected up 5% relative to a year ago, based mostly on expectations of increased motor gasoline consumption following the COVID-19 related weakness seen during 2020-21," the report said.

The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast down 10 cents to $4.20/bushel, USDA said.

Soybean exports from the US in 2021-22 is seen at 2.2 billion bushels, down 2.2% on year, according to the USDA. "Soybean exports for 2021-22 are projected down from 2020-21 as despite increasing global import demand, US market share is likely to decline on limited exportable supplies," the report said.

Meanwhile, US soybean ending stock is estimated at 145 mil bushels, up 20.8% on year.

The soybean season-average farm price is projected at $11.25/bu, up slightly from 2020-21.

Wheat estimates

US 2021-22 wheat production is projected almost unchanged from 2020-21 at 1.827 billion bushels as higher area offsets a lower yield, USDA said in its outlook.

The total wheat area for 2021-22 is projected at 45.0 million acres, up 651,000 acres from the previous year but still below the 5-year average.

Higher expected net returns for corn and soybeans in the Northern Plains is seen reducing combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2021-22.

Several regions, particularly Europe, where production is expected to rebound significantly, result in greater competition for US exports in 2021-22.

US 2021-22 wheat exports are projected at 925 million bushels, down 6.1% on year, the report said.

However, lower exports are expected to more than offset higher domestic use.

The US domestic use is projected higher for wheat, primarily on increased feed and residual use as the narrowing wheat-corn price spread is expected to increase wheat feeding this summer, the report said.

Lower beginning stocks combine with a virtually unchanged crop size is expected to reduce 2021-22 wheat supplies by 6% to 2.793 billion bushels, a seven-year low, USDA said.

"With supplies projected to decline relatively more than total use, 2021-22 ending stocks are

reduced to 698 million bushels. This is 17% below the previous year and the lowest carryout level since 2013-14," USDA said in its outlook.

The tighter balance sheet supports a 2021-22 season-average farm price of $5.50 per bushel, up 50 cents from 2020-21, the report said.