- The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite continue to display growth with 1.7%, 1.8%, and 2.3%, respectively.
- Housing wealth slipped again in real terms, with July’s 1.7% national gain lagging the 2.7% rise in consumer prices.
- 15 of 20 major metros fell month-to-month in July, underscoring broad cooling even during peak buying season.
NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 30, 2025: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the July 2025 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, formerly known as the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-cotality-case-shiller/.
ANALYSIS
"July's results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "National home prices rose just 1.7% year-over-year, down from June's 1.9% pace and a far cry from the double-digit gains of two years ago. In fact, this is one of the weakest annual price increases in the past decade – and notably, it's below the 2.7% rise in consumer prices over the same period. In other words, U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners. This reversal is striking: during the pandemic boom, home prices were climbing far faster than inflation, rapidly boosting homeowners' real equity. Now, the situation has flipped – over the last year, owning a home yielded a modest nominal gain, but an inflation-adjusted loss.
"What's keeping price growth barely in positive territory at all is the rebound we saw earlier in 2025 offsetting a soft patch in late 2024. National home prices edged down slightly last autumn and then crept back up in the first half of this year. The net result is that July's index level is only about 1.7% higher than a year ago. Essentially, the market experienced a minor dip and recovery within a 12-month span, leaving us with little overall appreciation. This kind of volatile plateau stands in stark contrast to the roaring price surges of 2021, and it underscores just how decisively the market's momentum has cooled.
"The geographic hierarchy of U.S. housing continues its dramatic shake-up. New York's 6.4% annual gain in July once again leads all major metros – an almost unheard-of position for New York during the pandemic years – followed by Chicago at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.5%. Boston and Detroit also posted solid increases of about 4%, reflecting a broad trend: many Northeastern and Midwestern markets, which saw relatively modest price growth in the pandemic, are now among the nation's top performers. By contrast, several Sun Belt and West Coast markets that were recently red-hot are now faring far worse. Tampa home prices are down 2.8% year-over-year – the weakest of all 20 cities – and Phoenix has slipped to –0.9%, officially turning negative. Even some of the last holdouts of the boom have now cooled or reversed. Miami, for example, was still growing year-over-year as of the spring, but has now fallen 1.3% on an annual basis. Las Vegas, which saw annual gains above 25% at the height of the boom, has decelerated to just a 1.0% increase. And the high-cost Western markets continue to struggle: San Francisco is –1.9% year-over-year, San Diego is –0.7%, and Los Angeles is essentially flat at +0.2%. This represents a near-total inversion of the pandemic's winners and losers – the regions that were once laggards are now leading, while the former high-flyers are lagging or even declining. Importantly, this rotation seems rooted in fundamentals: the markets now on top (like Chicago or Cleveland) tend to be more affordable and supported by steady local economies, whereas the ones stumbling (like San Francisco or Phoenix) are grappling with stretched affordability and the comedown from speculative fervor.
"Short-term price movements in July underscore the housing market's fragility. A majority of the 20 cities (15 out of 20) saw month-to-month price declines in July before seasonal adjustment – a sharp turnaround from just a few months ago, when most markets were still eking out gains. The National Index itself ticked down –0.2% in July (NSA), which is a softer result than the usual early-summer uptick we might expect. After accounting for seasonal trends, the National Index registered a second consecutive monthly drop (about –0.1%), indicating that underlying demand remains tepid even during peak buying season. Clearly, the combination of high mortgage rates and stretched buyer affordability is limiting how far the spring/summer rally can go. The fact that so many metro areas are now slipping month-to-month – including former boomtowns like Seattle (–0.9% NSA) and Phoenix (–0.8%) in July – suggests that the housing market is still searching for a stable footing in this new high-rate environment.
"Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be settling into a new, more measured equilibrium," Godec concluded. "The era of 15-20% annual home price jumps is behind us, and in its place we're seeing growth rates closer to overall inflation – or even a bit below it. While that means homeowners aren't gaining wealth at the breakneck pace of the recent past, it also signals a potentially healthier trajectory for housing in the long run. Prices that grow in line with incomes and consumer prices are more sustainable, and they reduce the risk of the kind of affordability crises and speculative bubbles we've seen before. The ongoing rotation in regional performance is another sign of normalization: markets with strong local economies and reasonable prices are doing better than those that overshot fundamentals. In short, the housing market's post-boom era is one of stability over sizzle – a shift that may feel disappointing to sellers used to huge gains, but ultimately creates a more balanced and resilient foundation for the future."
