S&P Latin America Equity Indices Commentary: Q3 2020
Overall, Latin American equities remained flat (-0.2%) in USD terms, as
measured by the S&P Latin America BMI, a broad, regional index designed
to measure the performance of 289 stocks from Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Mexico, and Peru. However, the S&P Latin America 40, representing the
40 largest (by market cap) and most liquid stocks, dropped a full 2.0% for
the quarter amid the continued ravaging of COVID-19 on public health and
the local economy.
On the economic front, S&P Global Ratings’ analysts recently
reported that Latin America is in the middle of a recovery. However, the
2020 GDP forecast for all countries in the region will remain contracted.
Due to strong exports to China and less stringent lockdowns, Brazil’s
economic contraction will be less severe than was originally forecasted,
while other countries like Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru will be
worse off than expected. Meanwhile, Chile is very much on target. Many
variables will affect the depth and speed of the recovery as countries try
to emerge from the worst pandemic in more than 100 years.
At the sector
level, Information Technology, Materials, and Industrials were the winners,
with positive returns of 19.1%, 15.2%, and 8.3%, respectively for Q3 2020.
The worst performers were Energy, Utilities, and Financials, losing 9.1%,
6.8%, and 6.4%, respectively.
Argentina’s economy is one of the most
affected in the region, but economists expect Q3 2020 to be the start of
its gradual stabilization. S&P Global Ratings has raised the country’s
rating based on a new proposal to restructure its debt in order to avoid
another sovereign default. The S&P MERVAL Index gained 7% in ARS for the
quarter, with the S&P/BYMA General Construction Index leading the
sector board (up 42.5%); the biggest losses came from the Energy
Brazil’s equity market was nearly flat, with the Brazil 100
Index (IBrX 100) and the S&P Brazil BMI gaining 0.0% and 0.7%,
respectively. This may be a first step in the right direction, with the
economy rebounding during Q3, primarily driven by increased demand in
commodity and food exports. Not surprisingly, the S&P/B3 Momentum Index
(up 8.5%) and the S&P/B3 High Beta Index (up 5.9%) did well. These
smart beta indices are designed to measure stock performance while
factoring in the sensitivity of the market and its movements. Likewise, the
S&P/B3 Ingenius Index (up 21.0%) continued to generate extraordinary
returns in the midst of the pandemic, benefiting from the performance of
Chile is not only struggling with the pandemic, but it is also in the
middle of a major potential political change, with an upcoming referendum
for a new constitution. All this uncertainty is keeping the equity market
in the red, with the S&P IPSA dropping 8.1% in Q3. S&P Global
Rating’s economists, however, have been more optimistic about a quick
economic recovery in Chile, given the “strong government support for labor
markets and business.” Chile’s shining spot was in the mining sector, with
the S&P/CLX Natural Resources Index gaining 9.6% in Q3.
Colombia and Peru generated strong results. The S&P Colombia Select
Index gained 7.3% for the quarter. Among Peruvian equity indices, the
S&P/BVL Peru Select 20% Capped Index was the best performer (up 9.3% in
PEN and 7.4% in USD) for Q3, aided by the high returns of the mining
sector, as the S&P/BVL Mining Index had double digit returns (up 20.6%
in PEN and 18.5% in USD).
Mexico’s main equity indices were generally flat, with the S&P/BMV IPC
losing 0.7% for Q3. The exception was the S&P/BMV IRT MidCap, which
gained 10.1% for the same period. Looking at the sector indices, the story
of Chile and Peru repeats itself, with the mining sector in Mexico yielding
the highest return, with the S&P/BMV Materials Select Sector Index
gaining 17.3%. Among other industries, FIBRAs in Mexico had a strong third
quarter, with returns of 5.9%. As was the case in Brazil with the
S&P/B3 Ingenius Index, the S&P/BMV Ingenius Index gained 12.0% for
the quarter and 56.6% YTD.