Defining Outcomes Systematically with Indices

Examining Equal Weight Performance in Challenging Markets

Two Decades of Dividends: A Macro Look at S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats

Tracking Munis in Uncertain Markets

An All-in-One Global Solution: S&P World Index

Index TV - May 08, 2025

Defining Outcomes Systematically with Indices

Length 3:37

Length 3:37

How are index innovations helping market participants address volatility and uncertainty? S&P DJI’s Anu Ganti and Calamos Investments’ Matt Kaufman discuss index-based approaches to defined outcomes.

[TRANSCRIPT]

Can you provide an overview of the defined outcome landscape today?

Matt Kaufman:

The defined outcome landscape has grown tremendously since its roots back in around 2018. Today, you can get defined outcomes or built-in protection levels on broad markets like the S&P 500. You can get protection levels of 10%, 15%, 20%, 30%, all the way up to 100% protection against a broad market decline, and so that space is growing really rapidly today.

How do S&P DJI’s range of defined and target outcome indices work?

Anu Ganti:

A defined outcome strategy allows investors to really create a tailored payoff structure, with both downside protection up to a certain threshold, as well as upside participation up to a certain cap. And these strategies can be constructed by taking a Delta One position in, say, an underlying asset, or deep in-the-money calls, or futures, and combine that with a basket of options.

And really thanks to innovations in indexing, it has really democratized access to these strategies, and we offer a range of indices which can potentially benefit from the S&P 500's robust trading ecosystem.

Why did Calamos pursue a rules-based approach to structured outcomes and why select the ETF wrapper?

Matt Kaufman:

When you're trying to deliver a certain outcome on an underlying reference index, you want to make sure that you can deliver on that. And so a rules-based methodology really allows you to do that very precisely.

You can deliver the upside of a market to a cap with a built-in protection level over an outcome period. Rules built into an underlying strategy really allow you to dial that in extremely well. The ETF wrapper is one of the most favorable wrappers and one of the most in-demand financial wrappers in the market today: low cost, liquid, transparent and, maybe most importantly, tax efficient. We can now deliver all of this in a tax-deferred way.

How have these indices performed historically?

Anu Ganti:

Yes, so these indices tend to do well in rising markets, as well as during down markets during those volatile periods, and buffer strategies, by capping both the downside and the upside, they tend to mitigate volatility and really provide a more stable exposure.

So the two key benefits are risk mitigation, offering downside protection, as well as the equity-like exposure, participating in market gains, which can potentially enhance returns during those favorable market environments.

What are some of the potential applications for these strategies given the current economic climate?

Matt Kaufman:

Yes, we're seeing three ways.

We're seeing people turn in their risk-free rate that they might get from a CD or a bond-paying instrument and then tying that exposure to the equity markets. They can tie their safe money to the equity market upside, especially for the 100% protection ETFs.

And then we're also seeing people de-risking equity exposure, especially in volatile environments. They're taking some of their risk off the table without giving up all of their equity upside.

And then the third point is more of a people group, retirees specifically. There's 11,000 retirees entering the market every single day. It's the largest number of retirees we've ever seen enter the market. That group has to outpace inflation over time. They can't always rely on bonds to do that, and so they're relying on defined outcome ETFs to provide for themselves when they no longer work.

Closing:

For more information, visit spglobal.com/spdji.

Index TV - May 06, 2025

Examining Equal Weight Performance in Challenging Markets

Length 05:44

Length 05:44

How have the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index's exposures influenced its performance over time and why could that matter in the current climate? S&P DJI’s Anu Ganti and Invesco’s Nick Kalivas explore the growing ecosystem and key performance drivers of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index.

[TRANSCRIPT]

How have the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s exposures informed its relative performance?

Anu Ganti:

So over the past decade, we've seen that the S&P 500 has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, and there's two key drivers for this. One is the outperformance of mega caps as equal weight has a small-cap bias by design. The other is the outperformance of momentum, and equal weight has an anti-momentum bias because of the natural rebalancing of selling the winners and buying the losers.

So as a result of this, we've seen that The 500 has outperformed over the past decade. But over the long term, we've seen that equal weight has outperformed not just the S&P 500, but also mid caps and small caps. And an important point is that over time, after peaks in market concentration, we've seen that equal weight has tended to outperform, which is so timely given the current market environment right now.

So these trends in concentration and momentum, they tend to mean revert over time. Of course, it's very difficult to predict in advance when that inflection point will occur, but of course we can look to history as a guide.

Why are the S&P 500 EWI’s factor and sector exposures important in the current climate?

Anu Ganti:

In this climate, understanding equal weight's factor exposures is key, is top of mind. So as mentioned, equal weight has a small-cap tilt. It also has an anti-momentum bias. As a result, equal weight also has a tilt toward value. And finally, equal weight has a dividend tilt, which is especially timely given the current defensive sentiment that we're seeing in the market right now.

Now switching gears, equal weight has different sector exposures versus The 500. So for example, currently equal weight has an underweight to Communication Services and Information Technology. It also has an overweight to Industrials, Real Estate and Utilities. Again, relevant right now in today's environment when thinking about defensive exposure. So very important to understand the distinctions between equal weight and The 500 from a factor lens as well as a sector lens.

How does the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index work in today’s markets?

Nick Kalivas:

Well, for one, given what we're seeing with the big concentration that's present, we think that equal weight can make for a better core of the portfolio and actually manage some of the risks that are present in the cap-weighted S&P 500.

So, for example, right now historically the top 10 names are about 36% of the S&P 500 cap weight. If you go back in history, you haven't seen this type of exposure since the 1960s. The tech bubble, we saw 25%. And if you go to the lower end of the range that we've seen, in the last 20, 30 years, it's about 17.5%. So you have a lot of concentration. And the implications of this concentration are a couple fold.

One, the cap-weighted S&P 500 has a bit of a growth bias. So if you look at its overlap relative to some very popular growth funds, you'll see that overlap is approaching 50%. Now there's nothing wrong with growth, but if you want the core of your portfolio, you might want to be more balanced or diversified. So that's one thing.

The second dynamic that's present is we've seen a lot of valuation stretch in the cap-weight S&P 500 relative to equal weight. So equal weight is relatively inexpensive. The discount right now is about 25% if you look at P/E ratio. Over time, that number is more close to parity. So value-oriented investors might be attracted to equal weight.

On top of that, the cap-weight S&P 500 has actually become more risky than the equal weight, which is very unusual. In fact, if you look at 30-day historical volatility, the cap-weight S&P 500 is about 4% higher than equal weight right now. Going over long history, it's typically the opposite. Equal weight has tended to be 1% more because of its value, small-size tilt. So investors can kind of mitigate some risks that are present with the Mag 7 and the impact on the cap-weighted S&P 500. And then lastly, going back to what Anu said, there may be a good chance for some mean reversion in return given the dominance of the big, growthy names in the market over the last few years.

Could you talk about the growth of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ecosystem and the potential implications for investors?

Nick Kalivas:

The ecosystem has really expanded quite a bit. RSP, the AUM in that right now is about USD 75 billion. There are asset owners kind of across the spectrum. We have big institutions, we have financial advisors, we have fast money types that are in there, there's a lot of model usage there, and that has really caused the strategy of equal weight to become more popular.

Now, as a kind of an implication of that, you have futures now on equal weight that trade on the CME. You have an expected option launch on equal weight S&P 500 on the Cboe come April, and so you're seeing this kind of growing interest in the equal weight concept. You have ETF, you have futures, you have options, and they all really are able to kind of meld together to create this very liquid ecosystem, which we think is going to attract even more investors and make equal weight more of a benchmark or go-to way to invest in the market.

Closing:

For more information, visit spglobal.com/spdji.

Index TV - Apr 29, 2025

Two Decades of Dividends: A Macro Look at S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats

Length 05:00

Length 05:00

What are the key takeaways from the first 20 years of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats? S&P DJI’s Rupert Watts and State Street Global Advisors’ Colin Ireland explore key lessons and potential applications for S&P HYDA in its 20th anniversary year.

How has index construction influenced performance over the past 20 years?

[TRANSCRIPT]

Rupert Watts:

Obviously, it's an exciting year for the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats this year, given that it's celebrating its 20-year anniversary, which is obviously quite a milestone for a dividend index. And I think over that period, there's really been three core performance characteristics that have stood out. The first being its defensive qualities, the second being its strong total returns, and the third being its competitive high yields.

In terms of the defensive qualities, obviously a stringent selection criteria for the index is that every single constituent must have raised its dollar dividends every year for a minimum of 20 consecutive years. And as you can imagine, the types of constituents that it tends to track tend to be, you know, higher quality and exhibit defensive characteristics in the form of lower volatility and lower downside capture.

In terms of the total returns, obviously a key consideration for a dividend strategy is the fact that you can benefit from the price appreciation through equity participation. And since the live date, the index has generated an annualized return of 9.5%, which is obviously pretty competitive and we actually assess the performance against a group of actively managed equity income funds, and over the last 10 years, it's outperformed the majority of funds within that category.

And then lastly, on the yield side, the index has consistently outperformed the benchmark, and over the last 20 years has averaged a yield of around 3.2% compared to the benchmark S&P Composite 1500, which has an average yield of around 1.7%.

How has the index held up during periods of inflation historically?

Rupert Watts:

Another key consideration when selecting a dividend strategy is whether it can preserve purchasing power through the dividend payments, and basically the degree that it can protect against inflation is dependent on a variety of factors, some of which are the type of a constituent or the number of years of consistent dividend growth.

As we spoke about earlier, the core criteria for this index is that constituents must have raised their dollar dividends every year for a minimum of 20 consecutive years across a range of macroeconomic environments, and constituents tend to be, you know, higher quality. And basically since the index went live, the annualized dividend growth rate has been about 5.5%, which easily outperforms the CPI rate, which has averaged about 2.5% over the same period and at least goes to show historically that it's tended to preserve purchasing power.

What economic environments have favored S&P HYDA historically?

Colin Ireland:

So the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrat strategy tends to outperform in periods of market volatility, economic downturns and recessionary environments, and this is when investors are looking for the defensive characteristics of blue-chip stocks. These are companies with strong balance sheets, and they're committed to their dividend over a long period of time.

So any investor that's evaluating solutions in their equity sleeve for portfolio diversification and to reduce volatility, volatility dampening effect, have a great opportunity to look at this as a core solution. I mentioned the great financial crisis, and then we also have a myriad of events over the last two decades to point to.

What are some of the potential applications of S&P HYDA in the current climate?

Colin Ireland:

So I'll give you three applications of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats strategy in the current environment.

Number one, a portfolio ballast for the Mag 7 glamour stocks. Most investors still overweight growth right now, and for a lot of good reasons. The S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats' constituents have valuations that are less stretched relative to cap-weighted indices and obviously the growth names, and they've exhibited a low-volatility bias in early 2025.

Number two, the strategy derives a higher proportion of revenues from the United States, about 74% of revenues are U.S.-based versus about 57% for the S&P 500 and 59% for the S&P Composite 1500. So anybody concerned about trade wars and tariff implications, this is a great way to take that home bias tilt.

And then third, the strategy has an overweight to Industrials and Utilities, two sectors that have a higher sensitivity to inflation than the S&P 500 and are a great way for investors to take a longer-term view in terms of their dividend yield and their yield generation strategies in their portfolio.

Closing:

For more information on the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats, visit spglobal.com/spdji.

Index TV - Apr 28, 2025

Tracking Munis in Uncertain Markets

Length 06:58

Length 06:58

As uncertainties around tariffs, inflation and interest rates continue to make headlines, how are yield seekers viewing munis? S&P DJI’s Jennifer Schnabl and Vanguard’s David Sharp discuss key performance drivers of munis in challenging markets.

[TRANSCRIPT]

How have munis fared over the past 12-18 months and what’s driving this performance?

Jennifer Schnabl:

When I think about 2024, it was a year largely driven by interest rate volatility. We began the market, as we remember, early 2024, the market was expecting six interest rate cuts by the Fed. Within a few months, that shifted wildly, where at one point, the market then only expected one rate cut for the entirety of the year. And when it ended up happening, as we know, the Fed finally did cut rates for the first time in over four years in September of 2024, followed by two more rate cuts to close out the year.

And what this meant was interest rates, Treasury yields, fixed income yields across the board really, swung pretty wildly with the shift in sentiment, and municipal bond yields certainly went along with that ride in interest rate volatility.

And just to put some numbers to it, our intermediate muni yields, so 0 to 20 year in maturity, this is as measured by our S&P Intermediate Term National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index, those yields began the year at 2.9%, ended up being a low for the year. By May, they hit a high of 3.68% when the market peeled back its rate cut expectations. By October, they fell again to the low of 2.9%. This was after the Fed cut rates in September. And then they spent the remainder of the year drifting higher, closing the year out higher than where they began at 3.34%. So, those swings were not normal, certainly not in the year prior and in the many years prior.

But what's more telling is that, despite the interest rate volatility in the yields, and despite the move higher in yields throughout the year, the municipal bond market finished 2024 with positive returns, and the main driver of this was those elevated yield levels providing an income return high enough to not only drive performance but serve as a buffer to the broader market volatility.

How do munis stack up in today’s yield landscape?

Jennifer Schnabl:

Municipal bond yields began 2025 at some of the highest levels since 2011. I think most fixed income asset classes currently have yields that are at historical highs, and this is an environment we really haven't seen in more than a decade, where the majority of a return generated in a fixed income asset class, munis in particular, can largely be driven by the income associated with the yield offered.

The second thing I'd mention is, with the uncertainty with the changing regulatory landscape, of the changing fiscal policy, I think tariffs, a new regulatory regime, immigration policies, those tend to be associated with inflationary sentiment as well as mixed or uncertain economic impact on U.S. growth, but they do tend to point to, and I think it's general market consensus, that perhaps a higher-for-longer framework for interest rates is about to ensue. If that were to come to fruition, what it would mean for muni bond yields is it would just support these elevated yields that are currently in the market right now and allow for that yield or income capture that market practitioners can participate in for a little bit longer.

The third thing is the data shows that there's still a significant amount of cash on the sidelines or in the front end of the curve. Should front-end yields decrease and the curves steepen, I think that it would be logical to assume that that cash would move further out the curve into longer-dated assets where higher yields could be captured.

What are the headwinds and tailwinds for munis in 2025?

David Sharp:

Jennifer spoke to a lot of really important points there on what some of those tailwinds could look like. Most specifically, what we'd like to note is over the last couple of years, yields are back, and the taxable equivalent yield within munis is quite compelling.

Last year, it ended around, or at the end of February, it ended around 6% on taxable for the intermediate part of the curve. That's really attractive compared to taxable bonds in the aggregate. Even corporate bonds in the intermediate part of the curve can't return yields quite like that. So, that's going to be attractive to the right investor, and that will add some tailwinds behind this product.

The other thing is it's certainly the fundamentals, a lot of, again, what Jennifer mentioned, are really good and look really good in munis right now. A lot of the rainy-day funds at some of the municipalities are still very strong after a few years being able to add to those savings, those buffers. That's good for, even in a credit cycle that might change a little bit, that's good for munis. And that fundamental is really is going to resonate for a lot of investors in that space.

The headwinds are really some of the uncertainty with just economic policy. What is that going to, what is the impact of tariffs? Some of the administration's policies could be inflationary, the way that they hit the market, and that could lead to changes in the way the Fed behaves and thinks about lowering rates and adding supply to the monetary policy.

So, those headwinds, it's more around just the uncertainty that some clients have, that they want to be in really safe investments, like U.S. Treasuries or cash on the sidelines that they're still sitting in with those higher yields, they still remain to be a bit of a headwind to the muni landscape.

How is the role of passive strategies changing for munis?

David Sharp:

When we look at passive, it hasn't got quite the adoption in the muni space that we've seen in other parts of the market historically, but we're seeing that tide start to shift. When we look at the end of last year, about 13% of all assets in funds, and ETFs specifically, were in passive. But 27% of the flows last year went into passive, so it was really outkicking its weight, showing that there is a greater adoption of passive investing in munis. And a big driver of that frankly is ETFs. Just using ETFs more, the tax efficiency that the ETF provides, the trading flexibility it provides, it works really well in model portfolios, which are a growing area of business for many advisors. So, having the ETF in that package, that's those ETFs, there's active ETFs in that space, but passive is where the big assets lie. Our broad market muni product is over USD 30 billion. There are some really large funds that sit on the passive side to get that inclusion in models because the models like to have that stability and consistency that a passive index provides.

Closing:

For more information on muni performance and to stay up to date with the latest index launches, visit spglobal.com/spdji.

Closing:

For more information on muni performance and to stay up to date with the latest index launches, visit

Index TV - Apr 23, 2025

An All-in-One Global Solution: S&P World Index

Related Indices S&P World IndexS&P Global BMIDow Jones Best-in-Class World Index

Length 10:15

Related Indices S&P World IndexS&P Global BMIDow Jones Best-in-Class World Index

Length 10:15

How can an index help market participants benchmark the developed world? Take a deep dive into the S&P World Index as we explore its coverage and usage, its performance history and why it continues to be a tough index for actively managed funds to beat with S&P DJI’s John Welling and Anu Ganti.

[TRANSCRIPT]

Interviewer:

Hi everyone, welcome to Asset TV. I'm Michelle Yu.

How can an index help market participants benchmark the developed world? Well, we happen to have a great panel to help answer that very question. Joining me today are John Welling, Head of Global Equity and Thematic Indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Anu Ganti, S&P DJI's Head of U.S. Index Investment Strategy.

And today we're discussing the S&P World Index, its coverage and usage, its history, and why it continues to be a tough index for actively managed funds to beat. And I'm going to start with a very basic question and ask why the S&P World Index is often referred to as an "everything-in-one" index. John and Anu, welcome. John, I would love to start with you.

John Welling:

Thanks, Michelle. So the S&P World Index was launched in 2009, and since then, it has provided investors with a robust tool for comprehensive market analysis and informed decision-making. The index captures constituents from 24 developed markets across the world, and within those 24 developed markets, it captures about 85% of float market cap in each of those. So think it covers large caps and mid caps, so quite comprehensive and accessible exposure.

It's designed to represent the market performance of those economies in aggregate and gives insights into country- and sector-specific trends. So many would kind of think of the first-case usage as kind of moving away from home bias. So if you think of yourself as a U.S.-based investor, you might think of the S&P 500 while moving away from sort of the home bias and expanding and extending your exposure reach to beyond your home exposure area, the S&P World would help you achieve that.

Interviewer:

So you mentioned decision-making here. I mean, the question here is how could the S&P World help investors make more informed decisions? Anu, what are your thoughts on that?

Anu Ganti:

So, as John mentioned, the index has so many different uses, right. For example, you can use the S&P World to assess performance of global equity portfolios. Also, fund managers can use it as a benchmark to understand their relative performance versus the index. Also, the index can be used for the development of financial products, like ETFs and mutual funds, for example. And finally, it's so timely to think about risk management when thinking about sector trends and trends in these developed markets. So the index can be used for risk mitigation strategies as well. So there's so many different uses for this index in this climate.

Interviewer:

So, I think something our audience wants to know is how does the S&P World Index really help market participants navigate today's large, complex and rapidly changing investment universe? John, what are your thoughts on that?

John Welling:

Yes, Michelle. So, just for a little bit more context, I mentioned the launch of the S&P World Index since 2009. This benchmark also builds on the legacy of an even longer legacy of the S&P Global BMI, the S&P Global Broad Market Index, which was launched in 1989 and has about 15,000 companies with about USD 1.2 trillion in AUM in related benchmark assets. So as Anu was talking about, these assets, there's quite a bit of tracking of this index, so I would just say in terms of the rapidly changing environment, that question is on our minds. Markets evolve, but the index tends to evolve with it and provide the exposure needed.

So the S&P World Index takes into account maybe not all 15,000 of those, it's closer to about 1,500 companies within 24 developed markets, but you can then take a look at sector exposures, and there's an important aspect of using the GICS structure, the Global Industry Classification System, which is flexible and evolves with the types of companies and exposures in the index. So the S&P World Index covers over 300 GICS sub-industries, so you can really go and see what your performance is doing in relation to each of those sectors and kind of the more rapidly moving investment areas.

Interviewer:

And also one of those objectives we've heard a lot about in recent years is sustainability, and it's important to ask the question though, how exactly does sustainability manifest in the S&P World Index and what can we learn about the potential path of this trend from the index, John?

John Welling:

Yes, so it's true that sustainability-related investment risks and opportunities continue to mount. Climate change, artificial intelligence, the impact of political shifts in the U.S. and beyond, the energy transition, are just a few considerations as we head into the middle of 2025.

I should say, however, that we view sustainability as more than just a trend. At S&P Dow Jones Indices, we've been pioneers in sustainability indexing for more than 20 years, starting with the 1999 launch of the Dow Jones Best-in-Class World Index, formerly known as the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index. That index is effectively a sustainability-focused version of the S&P World Index. It leverages our world-class sustainability data sets to enable market participants to integrate climate and other sustainability-related considerations into their investment processes. This benchmark, along with many others, allows a variety of perspectives on sustainability and the various transitions that we're going through.

Interviewer:

Now similarly, there is increasing attention given to index governance, and the question here is how is the S&P World Index part of S&P DJI's commitment to following these types of best practices, John?

John Welling:

So actually a heightened focus on governance is a good thing for investors everywhere, especially in volatile and changing markets, like today's. As markets evolve, we are seeing stricter regulations and more demanding disclosure requirements, thus companies and indices alike must adhere to higher standards of governance. Because we prioritize transparency, independence and integrity, the S&P World Index remains steadfast as a reliable and accurate benchmark.

Its methodology is reviewed regularly. It's transparent. It's rules-based. We have independent oversight committees and various review processes, and as a co-founder of the Index Industry Association, we at S&P DJI adhere to industry best practices and changing regional regulatory standards. So stricter regulations and focus on governance is just business as usual for us.

Interviewer:

I want us to pivot now and talk a little bit about performance at a high level and how does S&P DJI assess performance of actively managed funds relative to the S&P World Index? And what insights can you share based on this analysis?

Anu Ganti:

Absolutely. So since 2002, we've been producing the SPIVA Scorecards, which stand for S&P Indices versus Active. We've been producing this in the U.S. for more than 20 years. We've expanded all around the world. And in our Mid-Year Scorecard, we actually showed one consolidated global update, and now we use the S&P World as our benchmark for the global equity category. So it's very interesting to see these cross-regional comparisons.

And what we found is that a majority of global equity funds underperformed across regions. If you think about Japan, Australia, Canada, the U.S., for example. And 2024 was no exception. We saw that 84% of U.S.-domiciled funds underperformed, and if you look at Europe, 91% of them underperformed. It was the highest ever, which was pretty interesting.

Interviewer:

The SPIVA data Anu shows it has been hard for active managers to beat the S&P World Index, but why do you think that is and what is the role of the current market concentration? What do you think about that?

Anu Ganti:

Yes, it's so timely, and one of the concerns right now is market concentration concerns with the outperformance of large caps. If you think about technology, if you think about the Magnificent 7, it can be tougher for active managers to overweight those large-cap names. In the U.S., we see that 89.5% of large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 over a 15-year period.

Now let's look globally. We see very similar concentration trends globally as well, with 92.5% of global funds underperforming the S&P World. Now it's important to step back and see that concentration trends can manifest at a country level as well. So if we look at the U.S., the U.S. has outperformed for more than a decade now, and if you look at the underperformance rates of these global equity managers, perhaps a headwind may have been that they were underweight the U.S. and more focused on their local opportunity set, particularly for the non-U.S.-domiciled ones. So it's important to keep those home biases in mind that John was alluding to earlier.

Interviewer:

Anu, you're always a financial encyclopedia. Thank you so much for being here as always. John, great to see you as well. Thank you so much both of you for your great insight.

And to learn more about the S&P World Index and why it is so relevant in today's concentrated markets, please visit us at the link below.

spglobal.com/spdji/sp-world-index

And that'll do it for us right now on Asset TV. I'm Michelle Yu. See you next time.

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