Kerch Strait closed to vessels until Nov 30 by stormy Black Sea weather

Grain traders have stopped their negotiations to sell from the port of Kavkaz amid the news that the Kerch Strait will be closed until Nov. 30 due to another storm in the region, multiple market participants told S&P Global Commodity Insights Nov. 24.

Local weather forecasts are for wind gusts to reach in excess of 40 mph over Nov. 26 until Nov. 30.

With delays caused by the inspection of vessels already at two weeks, the suspension of traffic will cause extra delay for coasters coming from the Azov Sea into the Black Sea.

The storm will also affect larger vessels as the Russian port of Kavkaz, which is situated at the Strait, is a transshipment port where larger Handysize vessels are loaded with cargo by crane. High winds can prevent loading.

"This is quite unusual", said one Russia-based trader. "They have a line there [at Kavkaz] already and it will significantly increase this time -- I am stopping my negotiations."

Inspection delays at the Kerch Strait have been from one day to two weeks, multiple market participants confirmed. Russia's Federal Security Service announced in July 2023 that vessels, while still able to use the Kerch Strait, will be subject to extra checks "to prevent terrorist and sabotage actions and ensure the safety of navigation." The high winds are expected to add to the delay.

"All coasters from Kavkaz are now delayed and now no one is offering to sell from there", said another Russia-based trader. "This happens from time to time but this adds a big chunk of a problem."

A Turkish mill owner said they've received an alert from a Russian wheat trader, reading that winds are forecast to be in excess of 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. "It's a mess there" said another Russia-based trader.

CIF Marmara 12.5% wheat protein was heard traded late Nov. 23 at $249/mt for a 3,000 mt cargo, with 11.5% heard traded at $241/mt and $239/mt Nov. 23. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed CIF Marmara 12.5% at $246/mt on Nov. 23, unchanged on the day.

"The storm will have consequences for freight rates during the following weeks", a Turkey-based broker said. Freight costs from Azov Sea to Marmara Sea were heard at $66/mt Nov. 23.

This comes after a storm caused havoc in the Black Sea region on Nov. 19, with one vessel travelling from Odesa, the Pallada, broken in two off the coast of Eregli, Turkey, while another ship, the Kafkametler is still missing. One crew member of the Kafkametler is dead with the other 11 crew still missing.