CS Brazil H1 November sugar production expected to drop 63.2% on year: survey

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 457,600 mt in the first half of November, down 63.2% on the year, a survey of 10 analysts by S&P Global Platts showed Nov. 22.

According to the analysts surveyed, the cane crush is estimated to range from 5.2 million mt to 13.6 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 9.4 million mt, a 53.7% decrease on the year.

Weather in the Center-South was suboptimal for crushing during H1 November, with an estimated four days lost to rain.

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 35%, down from 41.9% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent production premium for ethanol production, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.

Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent at 19.47 cents/lb on Nov. 22. The March NY11 sugar futures contract settled Nov. 22 at 19.76 cents/lb, providing a 0.29 cent/lb premium to hydrous ethanol in raw sugar equivalent.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugarcane, or ATR, is expected to be 139.5 kg/mt, a decrease of 8.9% year on year.

Total ethanol output from sugarcane is expected to be 599.2 million liters, a decrease of 49% year on year.

Hydrous ethanol output from cane was expected to be 288 million liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 57.3% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output from cane in H1 November was expected to be 291 million liters, a decrease of 41.9% year on year, according to the survey.

Total ethanol output from corn is expected to be 149 million liters, an increase of 30.7% year on year. Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 99 million liters, an increase of 18.9% year on year, and anhydrous ethanol output in H1 November was expected to be 50 million liters, an increase of 60.2% year on year.

Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures in the upcoming days.