Brazilian soybean planting swift, dry weather concerns remain: AgRural

New Delhi — Brazilian soybean planting for the 2020-21 crop year (September-August) has been progressing at a swift pace since mid-October following adequate rainfall across the mid-western regions, consultancy AgRural said Nov. 16, adding that dry weather in core regions remained a concern.

Brazilian soybean farmers have planted 70% of the total estimated area up to Nov. 12, against 56% a week earlier and 69% last year, according to AgRural.

A healthy soybean harvest pace in the South American nation was expected to put short-term pressure on US prices, which have been on an upswing in export optimism, tightening supply of soy, a dollar and South American weather concerns, analysts said.

CBOT soybean November futures prices were trading at $11.52/bushel on Nov. 16, a more than four-year high.

Although soybean planting seemed to have caught up with both last year and the five-year average pace of soy planting, dry weather in November could rekindle delayed harvest fears.

The beginning of November was marked by the return of predominantly dry weather, causing soy planting concerns in parts of Mato Grosso, Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Sao Paulo, AgRural said. Soil moisture was still below average in the three top soy-producing states due to insufficient rainfall, it said.

Soybean planting requires abundant rainfall and high soil moisture content, meaning dry weather slows the process.

According to AgRural, lack of soil moisture could result in more than 300,000 hectares of soybeans being replanted, particularly in Mato Grosso, as of Nov. 12.

With extensive dry weather in September and early October, soy planting had got under way at the slowest pace in a decade, stoking concerns of a delay to the harvest. Brazil's soybean harvest generally begins between late January and early February, but a delayed planting could push the harvest date a little further out.

Brazil is forecast to produce close to 133 million mt of soybeans in 2020-21, a record high for the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, according to consensus analyst estimates.

Late October, AgRural estimated Brazilian soybean acreage for 2020-21 at 38.3 million hectares, up 3.6% year on year and output at 132.2 million mt, an all-time high.

The Brazilian soybeans acreage and production forecasts were expected to be revised again late November, the consultancy said.