Ukraine's 2021-22 wheat exports rise 7% on year, prices remain strong

Ukraine's wheat exports rose 7% on the year to reach 9.89 million mt during the 2021-22 marketing year (July-June) through to Oct. 11, data from the Ukrainian agricultural ministry said Oct. 11.

Until the previous week, wheat exports were 5% lower on the year, the data showed.

The agriculture ministry had increased its wheat export forecast to 24.5 million mt from 23.8 million mt seen a month ago. In marketing year 2020-21, Ukraine had shipped out 16.6 million mt of wheat.

Ukraine's wheat exports have been gathering pace over the past few weeks primarily due to the rising tax on Russian wheat exports, traders said.

At the beginning of September, the year-on-year lag in Ukraine's wheat exports was at 13%.

"With the higher export tax in neighboring Russia, Ukrainian wheat is becoming more competitive in the market, which will further speed up the country's export pace," S&P Global Platts Analytics had said earlier in a report.

Platts Analytics forecasted Ukraine to export 22.5 million mt of wheat in marketing year 2021-22.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Ukraine's wheat exports during marketing year 2021-22 are seen at 23.5 million mt.

Export prices rising

The export prices have been increasing in line with the increase in the pace of exports from Ukraine.

Export prices of Ukrainian wheat have also seen significant increases over the last fortnight as demand for the crop rose amid more competitive prices, traders said.

Prices of Ukraine's wheat have increased nearly 5% in the last month as Russia hikes its export taxes on wheat.

According to Platts data, the FOB prices of Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat were assessed at $305/mt Oct. 11, up 25 cents from Oct. 8.

Harvest progress

According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, the country had harvested 32.3 million mt of wheat till Oct. 7, up from 32.2 million mt a week ago.

In an earlier report, Platts Analytics had increased Ukraine's wheat harvest to 31.2 million mt in marketing year 2021-22, up 1.9 million mt from the previous update.

The US Department of Agriculture has pegged Ukraine's wheat output in marketing year 2021-22 at 33 million mt, up from 25.4 million mt in marketing year 2020-21.