REFINERY MARGIN TRACKER: Midwest refining margins rise on increased harvest demand

Refining margins across the globe strengthened for the week ended Oct. 1 with those in the US Midwest topping those of other regions as US harvest shifts into high gear and refinery problems impact supply, an analysis by S&P Global Platts showed Oct. 5.

According to the US Department of Agriculture's Oct. 4 crop progress report, the soybean and corn harvest in many of the Midwest's producing states is above the five-year average for this time of the season, which has created strong seasonal demand for ULSD.

US Midwest coking margins for Western Canadian Select rose to average $16.47/b for the week ended Oct. 1, from the $16.36/b for the week ended Sept. 24, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics margin data.

Strong seasonal demand for ULSD for agricultural use has propelled Chicago ULSD prices to average $2.46/gal so far in Q4, the highest Q4 level since 2010, according to Platts assessments. A spate of refinery outages has reduced production of the fuel.

Most recently, this includes PBF Energy's 172,800 b/d Toledo, Ohio, which lost power earlier in the week, with market sources reporting possible problems at other Midwest plants, including BP's massive 435,000 b/d refinery in Whiting, Indiana.

Refinery outages cut runs, stocks

Midwest ULSD inventories are also just below the five-year average, according to most recent weekly US Energy Information Administration data.

This puts Midwest ULSD inventories at 30.4 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 24, slightly below the five-year average, as regional refinery utilization for the week fell to average 93.2% of capacity for the week, down from the 96% for the week ended Sept. 17.

Lower refinery runs propelled Midwest cracking margins higher as gasoline prices rose. Midwest cracking margins for WTI barrels ex-Cushing averaged $15.33/b for the week ended Oct. 1, up from the $14.69/b for the week ended Sept. 24, as gasoline stocks also fell below the five-year average.

EIA weekly data put total Midwest gasoline stocks at 46.537 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 24, down from 46.933 million barrels the week earlier.

Platts assessed Chicago CBOB at an average price $2.29/gal for the week ended Oct. 1 and has risen to average $2.376/gal thus far over the week ending Oct. 8.