AGRICULTURE WEATHER WATCH: Dry weather concern continues in US as harvest season looms

Crop harvest season in the US arrives on horizon as relatively dry conditions for most of the country over the last several weeks is expected to facilitate the process. Weather conditions may play more of a role in harvest than in crop production ahead.

Light showers are expected midweek but should not impact harvest too much. Another system is estimated to move in the northern plains region during middle of next week with chance for more widespread and heavier showers, but temperatures will be mostly above normal going into next week.

In central and southern plains, moderate to heavy amounts will continue to be possible, which will slow down the maturing process for corn and soybeans but perk up soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

US

** Quiet weather prevailed nearly nationwide after Hurricane Idalia's departure, and rainfall was confined to a few areas, including the lower Mississippi Valley, parts of the East, and northern sections of the Rockies and Plains.

** Showers also bypassed large sections of the Midwest, pushing summer crops toward maturity, amid the late-season heat and dryness.

** Extreme heat and dryness are threatening to dry out the Mississippi River, which is a major route for the outflow of US grains, including corn.

** In the Corn Belt, a cold front is expected to produce rain in the Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes region.

** By Sept. 10, 97% of the corn acreage was at or beyond the dough stage, 2 percentage points ahead a year prior and 1 point ahead of the 5-year average. About 52% of the nation's soybean acreage was rated in good-to-excellent condition, 1 percentage point below the previous week and 4 points below the previous year.

** Platts assessed CIF New Orleans Corn at 228.45/mt and soybeans at FOB New Orleans SOYBEX for October shipment at $534.53/mt Sept. 13, up $1.20/mt from Sept. 12, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Brazil

** Second corn crop harvest is nearly finished, supported by favorable weather conditions, with only a few regions trailing completion.

** In Paraná, strong winds, along with high grain moisture, are bedding plants and slowing harvest, while rainfall continues to delay harvest in São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

** Agrometeorological forecasts show stable weather conditions for the coming week, which is expected to support and favor crop development. Rainfall volumes greater than 50 mm are forecast in Northwest AM, with temporary showers expected in the coastal strip.

** According to the government of Parana as of Sept. 4, 79% of second-crop corn was harvested, while planting of the marketing year 2023-24 (September-August)first-crop corn reached 26%.

** Platts assessed Brazil Corn FOB Santos for October loading at $231.19/mt Sept. 13, $2.27/mt higher than the previous assessment.

Argentina

** Moderate to heavy showers provided much-needed moisture for winter grain development.

** About 80% of the core area is receiving rainfall between 30 to 110 mm, exceeding the earlier expectations of 10 to 40 mm, according to the Rosario Board of Trade.

** Supported by favorable weather, Argentina is preparing to plant 90% of total corn crops in September.

** However, a state of sustained drought continues in the NOA, La Pampa, most of Córdoba, the center and north of Santa Fe and most of Buenos Aires.

** Buenos Aires is forecast to receive small amounts of precipitation over the weekend, but dryness will continue in the aftermath.

** Platts assessed Argentina corn FOB Up River for October loading at $223.72/mt Sept. 13, $2.66/mt higher than the previous assessment.

EU

** Most of Europe is likely to see poor rainfall during the next two weeks, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said Sept. 13.

** Europe is also likely to see a rise in temperatures over the next two weeks, the agency said.

** Poor rainfall and high temperatures are likely to weigh on EU's crop yields, according to the agency.

** Crop yields in the ongoing harvests of corn and wheat, among other cereals, may be adversely impacted.

** The EU Joint Research Centre's Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit, or MARS, lowered its soft wheat yield forecast to 5.78 mt/ha in August, from 5.80 mt/ha in July.

** The European Commission forecast in its August update that EU cereal production in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) would be 274.1 million mt, against 276 million mt seen in the previous estimate.

** Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $247.5/mt, up on Sept. 13, according to S&P Global data.

Australia

** Most parts of Australia, except parts of Western Australia, are expected to remain extremely dry over the next two weeks, the country's Bureau of Meteorology said in a forecast Sept. 11.

** Western Australia and New South Wales are key wheat suppliers and poor showers there could impact crop yields.

** Temperatures are likely to be above normal across most parts of Australia, except northern parts of Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland during the next two weeks, according to the bureau.

** Across Western Australia and New South Wales temperatures are expected to be higher than average during the next two weeks, the bureau added.

** Poor rainfall along with rising temperatures are likely to impact crop productivity, including wheat, in most parts of the country, trade participants said.

** The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) wheat harvest at around 25.4 million mt, down 35.2% year on year, which is expected to weigh on exports.

** Platts assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat lower on the day at $297/mt Sept. 13, S&P Global data showed.

Malaysia and Indonesia

** Parts of Eastern Malaysia has experienced drier weather compared to historical conditions in August, industry analysts said, with El Nino's development considered likely in September-November 2023.

** For Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, El Nino has been associated with lower rainfall in palm oil producing regions, lower yields and higher prices.

** Indonesia is also expecting its rainy season to start in November, a month later than usual due to a developing the El Nino weather pattern, its meteorology agency BMKG said Sept. 8.

** Platts assessed crude palm oil FOB Indonesia at $840/mt on Sept. 13, down 5.6% since the start of the month.