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About Commodity Insights
09 Sep 2021 | 16:21 UTC
Brazil's forecast 2020-21 corn production has been cut to 85.749 million mt from 86.65 million mt projected in August, the country's CONAB national agricultural agency said Sept. 9.
The second corn crop in 2020-21, which will be marketed during February 2021-January 2022, will be below the levels projected in August due to the drought conditions observed in the main producing states and also because of the impact of frost seen since June end, CONAB said in its monthly survey.
Widespread drought this season has adversely impacted corn crop output.
Even with 8.6% increase in the second corn crop planted area in 2020-21, estimated at 14.935 million hectares, the adverse weather conditions brought productivity levels to 3,982 kg/hectare, down 27% compared with last season.
Brazil's overall corn yield in 2020-21 is seen down 22.1% from the 2019-20 level even though farmers in the country planted a record 19.87 million hectares.
Brazil produced a record 102.6 million mt of corn in the 2019-20 season.
With production revised, corn exports from Brazil, the second-largest exporter in the world, was lowered to 22 million mt for 2020-21 from 23.5 million mt projected in August and also below 35 million mt in 2019-20.
Brazil corn supply and demand
2019-20 (mil mt)
2020-21 August estimate (mil mt)
2020-21 September estimate (mil mt)
Production
102.586
86.65
85.749
First corn production
25.69
24.898
24.744
Second corn production
75.053
60.322
59.472
Consumption
68.663
70.91
70.856
Exports
34.893
23.5
22.00
Ending stocks
10.602
5.142
5.795