US corn acreage estimate for 2021-22 likely to rise in upcoming USDA report: sources

The US Department of Agriculture is expected to update the US corn acreage estimate for 2021-22 (September-August) above current figures in the upcoming acreage survey report due June 30, on the back of various supportive factors -- including high prices, sources said.

The US corn acreage estimate for 2021-22 -- which is currently at 91.1 million acres -- could be updated higher to a range of 93 million-96 million acres, according to various market sources.

S&P Global Platts Analytics expects US corn acreage to be 93 million acres for 2021-22.

On the higher end, IHS Markit has estimated the acreage figure at 96.5 million acres, while majority of analysts' estimates point to 93 million acres-94 million acres.

Futures International has estimated the acreage at 93.5 million acres, while StoneX is working with a preliminary estimate of 92.85 million acres, senior commodity economist with the agency said.

Promise of better returns

Sharply higher grain prices that have prevailed in recent months along with continued high export demand is expected to have encouraged producers to plant more corn, analysts said.

Corn prices rose 12% from the February insurance guarantee by mid-April, while soybean prices rose 7%, US-based commodity analyst Dale Durchholz said.

"Since the 1970s, in years with spring prices near the high of the prevailing historical range, corn and soybean plantings on average rise 3.8 million acres from the March intentions to the June report," he said.

Corn planting in the US typically begins in April-May, while harvest begins in September-October.

Exceptional prices bringing land back into production and slight reductions from the March estimates in plantings of other crops are likely to aid higher estimates for US corn and soybeans, he said. He estimates US corn acreage at 94 million acres.

The market is eagerly awaiting the USDA's acreage survey report as the updated acreage numbers for the 2021-22 marketing year will provide a way forward for US corn supply and demand estimates.

The USDA, as of now, sees the US corn acreage for the 2021-22 marketing year at 91.1 million acres, and production at 14.99 billion bushels.