India set to harvest record rice, wheat crops in 2020-21

India, the world's second-largest producer and biggest exporter of rice, is likely to harvest a record 121.46 million mt of grains in 2020-21, up 2.2% from the previous year, the country's agriculture ministry said May 25.

India's crop year for major crops run from July through June.

With the likely record output during the year, the export prices of Indian rice may decline, a Delhi-based trader said.

During 2020-21, India exported 13.1 million mt of rice so far, as against 5.1 million mt in 2019-20, data from Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority showed.

"So far the rise in exports are primarily due to a fall in the average export prices of Indian rice," the trader said. In 2020-21, the average export price was $366/mt as against $399/mt.

Record grain harvest

The Asian nation is also likely to see a record harvest of wheat at 108.75 million mt against 107.86 million mt last year, it said.

However, the average export prices of wheat may not decline as the expected increase in the production is marginal, a Bangalore-based wheat exporter said.

In 2020-21, India exported 2.1 million mt of wheat against 219,690 mt in the previous year, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority added.

India, the world's second-largest wheat producer, was unable to export significant quantities of wheat for several years because its wheat prices were higher compared with other global suppliers due to higher domestic prices. However, given the climb in global wheat prices as inventories had slumped to a two-year low, India finds itself in a position to export wheat.

With record harvest expected for two major food staples, the country is likely to see a bumper food grain harvest, too, it added. According to the government estimates, total food grain output is pegged at 305.44 million mt, 2.7% higher on the year.

Corn output during 2020-21 is estimated at 30.24 million mt, over 5% higher from the previous year, the government estimates showed.

Apart from major grains, India is also likely to see a near-record harvest of cane in 2020-21. It is likely to produce 392.80 million mt of sugarcane against 370.50 million mt in 2019-20, the estimates showed. India recorded its largest cane crop at 405.42 million mt in 2018-19.

Production of grains in 2020-21 and 2019-20 (volume in million mt)