USDA sees 2020-21 US corn output at record high, ending stocks at 33-year peak

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture estimates corn production in the US in the 2020-21 marketing year (September-August) to be at a record high of 15.995 billion bushels (406.29 million mt), the agency said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday.

The USDA released its first look for the 2020-21 supply and demand estimates for US corn in the report.

Year-end stocks for 2020-21 are estimated at 3.318 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion bushels from last year's levels, and the highest since 1987-88, the USDA said. S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the figure to be at 3.264 billion bushels.

The department has maintained US corn acreage estimates for 2020-21 at 97 million acres, seen earlier in the USDA's prospective planting report in March. Harvested area under corn for 2020-21 is expected at 89.6 million acres.

The yield projection for 2020-21 US corn is at 178.5 bushels/acre.

Total corn supplies in the US in 2020-21 are forecast at a record high of 18.118 billion bushels, the USDA said.

Corn used for ethanol in the US in 2020-21 is projected to increase from 2019-20's "COVID-19-reduced" levels, based on expectations of a rebound in US motor gasoline consumption, the USDA said. It estimates the figure to be at 5.2 billion bushels.

Corn exports from the US in 2020-21 are forecast at 2.15 billion bushels.

US 2020-21 corn exports are expected to rise 375 million bushel, driven by growth in world corn trade, the USDA said.

The US market share for corn is expected to increase from the 2019-20 multi-year low, but remains below the average seen over 2015-2020 with competition expected from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine, it added.

The season average farm price for US corn in 2020-21 is projected at $3.20/bushel, down 40 cents from 2019-20, and the lowest since 2006-07, it said.

Production estimates cut for 2019-20

The USDA has lowered estimates for corn production in the US in 2019-20 to 13.663 billion bushels from 13.692 billion bushels.

The agency also lowered its estimates for corn used for ethanol in the US for the 2019-20 marketing year to 4.95 billion bushels from 5.05 billion bushels estimated earlier.

It raised its US corn ending stocks estimates for 2019-20 to 2.098 billion bushels from 2.092 billion bushels projected in April.

The estimate for food and feed use in the US was raised marginally to 5.7 billion bushels from 5.675 billion bushels estimated in April.

The Platts Analytics WASDE preview report on Tuesday said the USDA considers the feed number based on quarterly stock reports. Therefore, the true demand impact of the meat processing slowdown in the US will take some time.

The USDA raised its estimate for US corn exports in 2019-20 to 1.775 billion bushels from 1.725 billion bushels projected in April. Platts Analytics estimates the exports to be at 1.8 billion bushels.

The agency's estimate for corn acreage was kept unchanged at 89.7 million acres, while the harvested acres estimate was lowered to 81.4 million acres from 81.5 million acres in April.

The estimated yield for US corn in 2019-20 was trimmed to 167.80 bu/acre from 168 bu/acre.