IGC sees record world wheat production in 2020-2021 on higher India forecast

New Delhi — World wheat production for 2020-2021 is estimated to be at an all-time record high at 769 million mt, compared with 763 million mt for 2019-2020, largely reflecting the change for India, according to data released Thursday by the International Grains Council, or IGC.

India, the second-largest wheat producer in the world, recently released its grains forecast for 2019-2020 (July-June), wherein it estimated record wheat output at 106.21 million mt, up 2.5% on the year.

"Preliminary supply and demand projections for wheat in 2020-21 point to an all-time high for production and a further build-up of stocks, but with inventory growth again concentrated in China and India," the council said.

Meantime, world corn harvested area in 2020-2021 is tentatively seen growing by 1%, mainly on a rebound in the US, IGC added without giving a number.

In a recent report, the US Department of agriculture forecast corn production in the country for the 2020-2021 (September-August) period at 392 million mt, up 13% from the year-earlier period, while acreage is expected to rise 5% to 94 million acres.

Soybean

For 2019-2020, despite prospects for heavy crop output in South America, world soybean production is forecast to fall 5% on the year to 345 million mt because of a plunge in US output, the council said.

According to USDA's data, area planted for soybean in the US is likely to fall 14.7% in 2019-2020 to 76.1 million acres, while production is likely to fall 19.6% to 96.84 million mt.

While world soybean consumption is predicted at a new peak in 2019-2020, the year-on-year increase of 2% to 360 million mt is below trend and reflects expectations of marginal growth in China, the council said.

The council estimated global soybean area for harvesting to rise 4% on the year in 2020-2021 because of an expected rebound in the US.

World soybean trade in 2019-2020 may edge up 1 million mt to 153 million mt on bigger shipments to Asia, in particular, IGC said.