US soybean 2020-21 ending stocks fall on higher exports

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture's US soybean ending stocks forecast for 2020-21 marketing year (September-August), was reduced for the sixth consecutive month to 120 million bushels, from 140 million bushels in January, the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report released Feb. 9 said.

The forecast was reduced due to higher export projections amid Brazilian harvest delays, the report said.

The USDA projects US soybeans exports for 2020-21 to reach 2.25 billion bushels, up 20 million bushels on January estimates.

The latest cut in US soybean ending stocks is 3 million bushels lower than the average analyst estimate at 123 million bushels, but in line with Platts Analytics forecast of 120 million bushels.

Soybean harvest delay in Brazil boosted sentiment for US soybeans exports, as two of the world's main suppliers vie for China's market share, the USDA report said.

Apart from exports and ending stocks projections, the USDA kept rest of the projections unchanged month on month.

Area harvested and soybeans production forecast were kept steady at 82.3 million acres and 4.135 billion bushel, respectively, the report said.

Soybean crush remained unchanged on the month at 2.2 billion bushel, the USDA said.

The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price was projected at $11.15/bu, unchanged on January estimates, but 30% higher year on year amid tight supply and robust China demand, the USDA said. The soybean meal price was projected at $400/st, up $10 from last month, and soybean oil price forecast was up 1.5 cents from the previous estimate at 40 cents/lb.

Global

The US soybean futures prices fell almost 15 cents/bu immediately after the release of the WASDE report to $13.8450/bu at 5 pm GMT Feb. 9, as USDA's projection for Brazilian soybean output remained unchanged at an all-time high of 133 million mt.

Analysts were expecting a cut in Brazilian soybean production forecast for 2020-21 from January estimates of 133 million mt, due to delayed planting and uneven rainfall during the fourth quarter of 2020.

Global 2020-21 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher exports and lower ending stocks, the USDA said.

Global exports are expected to be up 0.6 million mt at 169.7 million mt, on higher exports from the US and Russia, it said.

Higher imports for Argentina are partially offset by reductions for the EU-27+UK, Canada, and Bangladesh, the report said.

According to the USDA, global soybean stocks are expected to fall 1 million mt to 83.4 million mt in 2020-21, as lower stocks in the US and Brazil more than offset higher stocks in Argentina.