24 Dec 2018 | 19:39 UTC — Insight Blog
Oil policy twists and turns in 2018 - the Capitol Crude top 10
Featuring Brian Scheid and Meghan Gordon
There were 56 episodes of Platts' Capitol Crude podcast this year, covering nearly everything US oil policy touched from Boulder, Colorado to Beijing, China.
Here are 10 of our favorite episodes from 2018:
Just days after leaving his position as a top energy policy adviser to President Trump, George David Banks stopped by the podcast for a lengthy chat on what he described as a chaotic year in the White House. “Free at last,” he declares at the end of this one.
Spot Brent oil prices were up roughly $15/b on the year as the oil world arrived in Houston for CERAWeek. But in this (almost) live episode from the mega conference, Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton had some insight into a looming supply glut. Permian production, which had yet to cross the 3 million b/d threshold, could hit 7 million b/d by 2023, Sitton said.
Why are US gasoline exports to Mexico breaking records? Why are Canadian crude exports to the US Gulf Coast climbing? For the first time, Mason Hamilton and Jeff Barron, petroleum markets analysts with the US Energy Information Administration, stopped by to discuss US oil market fundamentals. The Barrel Brothers are now Capitol Crude regulars.
Trade tensions, sanctions, war and economic freefall. On this episode, Joe McMonigle of Hedge Risk Management and Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners, cover a seemingly endless list of global oil risks, including Venezuela, Syria, Iran, China and more in less than 15 minutes.
With tensions between the US and Iran high, the world was again facing the possibility of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. US Navy Admiral Jonathan Greenert, who was the Chief of Naval Operations the last time Iran threatened to shut down the world’s busiest oil chokepoint, walked us through why they were unlikely to do so this time. This interview took place at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis and, if you listen closely at the start, you can hear a V-22 Osprey aircraft taking off just outside Greenert’s office.
June 8 –Jaffe calms Iran worries
We asked Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the Council on Foreign Relations, what geopolitical event would likely have the most significant impact on the global oil market. Spoiler alert: Iran sanctions. But Jaffe threw some cold water on concerns, claiming that the loss of Iranian crude from the world market would likely be filled by OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia.
June 25 – US Shale’s Warning to OPEC
In this interview on the sidelines of OPEC’s once-every-three years international conference, Scott Sheffield, chairman of Pioneer Natural Resources, had a warning: conditions are ripe for $100/b oil. In this interview, shortly after issuing that warning, Sheffield talked about why rising prices are bad for both OPEC and Permian producers alike.
Our colleague, John-Laurent Tronche came up with the idea for this one. Tronche, a Platts managing editor, Americas crude oil, walked us through why refiner concerns over blending and crude quality perceptions were changing long-held views on what WTI really is. Tronche explains the ever-confusing conundrum that is the growing price differential between WTI and WTI.
July 23 – Venezuela’s rock bottom
The ongoing collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector was a frequent topic on Capitol Crude this year, but few forecast the collapse as bluntly as Lejla Villar, a US Energy Information Administration analyst. Villar forecast Venezuelan oil production to fall below 1 million b/d by the end of this year and to 700,000 b/d to the end of next year. It will be close. In this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecast Venezuelan oil output to fall below 1.18 million b/d in November.
October 8 – McNally calls waivers
During a ride to the Reagan National Airport in early October, we talked to Bob McNally about US-Saudi relations, OPEC, oil prices and US sanctions on Iranian crude oil, which would be reimposed less than a month later. McNally, the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, said he expected the Trump administration to take a “more moderate” approach to sanctions with waivers to China, India and South Korea likely. The Trump ended up issuing those waivers, and waivers to five additional nations in November.