China's coal-fired power generation surprises naysayers

Anyone with doubts about China's demand for energy including for thermal coal needed to sustain its gigantic economy should cast their eyes over the latest statistics for power generation from Beijing's National Statistics Bureau.

These data are a treasure trove in terms of revealing trends in China's energy production and appetite for thermal coal sourced from both inside China and from imports shipped from countries including, Australia, Indonesia and Russia.

One interesting revelation is that China's production of electricity from coal stayed at elevated levels post the northern hemisphere winter after reaching a high of 423.6 billion kWh in December - and the highest level recorded based on available data going back to January 2010.

December's record power generation from coal represented a 7% year-on-year increase on China's coal-fired electricity output of 385.6 billion kWh in December 2015, according to the national statistics bureau.

And electricity production from coal in March 2017 rebounded strongly following the Lunar New Year lull in February, rising 7.7% year on year to 396.1 billion kWh, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data.

This was after double-digit, year-on-year increases in China's electricity generation from coal of 12.2% in September and 11.9% in October.

The country's seemingly unquenchable appetite for energy in the form of coal is reflected in prices for the commodity.

They have stayed above $70/mt for the 5,500 kcal/kg NAR grade since September, and escalated to a five-year high in mid-November to $94-$96/mt excluding taxes, according to S&P Global Platts price data.

Part of this rally was fueled by supply restrictions in China, as central government lowered production at domestic coal mines to dampen prices, but robust demand for power from China's industrial base also played some role.

Imports are important to China's coastal coal-fired power plants as they provide an alternative fuel source in competition to domestically produced thermal coal, which has developed a volatile price record in recent years.

Some energy market analysts have been quick to write off China's growth potential as a market for thermal coal exports, advancing the argument that the Asian country is diversifying away from fossil fuels and into other energy sources such as solar and wind.

This argument is somewhat dispelled by another eye-catching development revealed by the data, and that is the disappointing performance of China's hydro-power industry, from which generation has fallen year on year since September.

Electricity output from China's hydro-electricity plants contracted by 1.3% in March to 72.5 billion kWh, after a year-on-year rise of 9.2% in March 2016 to 74.7 billion kWh.

China's generation from hydro-electric plants usually peaks around July each year, and peaked at 123.7 billion kWh in July 2016, and 109.8 billion kWh in July 2015, according to the NBS data.

A lower-than-expected performance of hydro-electric power generation in China this mid-year could set the scene for stronger coal-fired generation in the months to come.