Global cement demand expected stable in 2025: On Field Investment

Global cement demand is forecast to remain steady in mature markets in 2025, but recovery in North America and Europe is likely to be sluggish, primarily due to high interest rates and ongoing trade uncertainties, according to Yassine Touahri, managing partner at On Field Investment Research.

Speaking at the Intercem Americas conference in Houston, Texas, held over Nov. 19-21,Touahri added that despite government stimulus efforts, China is expected to experience a further decline in cement demand, while moderate growth is anticipated in Africa and Southern Asia next year.

On Field also predicts that the cement industry will prioritize pricing strategies to counteract cost inflation in the US and consolidated European markets.

"[This may come] even at the expense of some market share loss to independent imports," Touahri said.

Emerging markets are likely to implement local currency price increases to mitigate foreign exchange depreciation, while signs of recovery are appearing in Chinese prices after a prolonged period of decline.

Geopolitical factors remain critical to cement demand meanwhile.

"If peace is achieved in Ukraine and the Middle East, we could see a significant surge in demand for reconstruction, greatly impacting supply and demand dynamics in those regions," Touahri said. "While [US President-elect]Trump has repeatedly expressed his willingness to swiftly achieve peace, reaching comprehensive agreements remains challenging due to the ideological differences of negotiating partners, particularly Russia and Iran."

He added that ongoing conflicts have already reduced local cement demand by over 15 million mt from their peak

Reflecting on 2024, Touahri noted that cement demand displayed weak trends in mature markets and China, with North America and Western Europe experiencing "disappointing" demand as private construction suffered from high interest rates and extreme weather events.

"In China, demand remained under significant pressure," he said, while Latin America showed stability with modest growth in Mexico and Brazil offset by declines in other South American regions. "India, Africa, and Eastern Europe, however, saw moderate growth."