CASDE sees record China soybean imports in 2021-22, cut in domestic output

China's soybean demand in marketing year 2021-22 (October-September) is expected to remain robust as the domestic production forecast was lowered, the monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report released by the National Bureau of Statistics said Dec. 9.

The forecast for record soybean imports and cuts in domestic production in China is likely to support global prices.

The world's largest soybeans purchaser is expected to import a record 102 million mt of beans in 2021-22, unchanged from the previous month's estimates and up 2.2% year on year, the CASDE report said. Simultaneously, the domestic projection for 2021-22 soybean output has been cut from 18.65 million mt in November estimates to 16.40 million mt, compared with 19.60 million mt last year, the data showed.

The cut in domestic output was largely due to lower yield, which is estimated at 1,950 kg/hectare, down 2.2% year on year, the report said.

China's crushing sector has been beleaguered with negative margins since June, which had stoked concerns of a dampening oilseed demand in 2021-22. From January through November, China has imported 87.65 million mt of beans, down 5.5% from the corresponding period a year ago, the customs report released Dec. 7 said.

However, Platts Analytics expects the Asian nation's soybean demand to remain at all-time high levels in the upcoming marketing years on the back of robust pig herd growth.

Platts Analytics forecast China's soybean imports in 2021-22 and 2022-23 at 102 million mt and 104 million mt, respectively.