Ukraine's 2020-21 corn output estimate, export potential slashed: Platts Analytics

New Delhi — Corn production in and exports from Ukraine, one of the world's largest corn exporters, are expected to fall sharply in 2020-21 (July-June) as harvest results paint a bleak picture of the crop's prospects during a year of extremely dry weather, S&P Global Platts Analytics said in a report Dec. 2.

Platts Analytics now estimates Ukrainian corn production at 29.2 million mt, down from 35.9 million mt last year and exports at 24.5 million mt, down from 29.2 million mt.

Platts Analytics' estimates for Ukrainian corn production and exports are slightly above those of the US Department of Agriculture, which were also cut in the USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The USDA lowered its forecast for Ukrainian corn production sharply to 28.5 million mt from the 32.4 million mt, and its corn export estimate to 22.5 million mt from 27.5 million mt.

Production estimates for Ukrainian corn are lowered as dry weather during the growing season has impacted crop yields adversely.

Platts Analytics lowered its Ukrainian corn yield estimate to 5.48 mt a hectare, from 6.09 mt/ ha earlier due to poor harvest results from several major growing regions.

"The harvest campaign is completed in the Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkassy oblasts and nearly completed in Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts indicating that average yields here are 10%-50% below the five-year average," the report added.

The Ukrainian corn harvest was 94% complete as of Dec.1 with 26.8 million mt of corn harvested from an area of 5.1 million hectares, data from the Ukrainian agriculture ministry showed.

As of Dec. 2, the country had exported 5.8 million mt of corn, 1.6 million mt less year on year, the ministry said.

The pace of exports has, however, gained momentum recently as the harvest nears completion, Platts Analytics said.

"As the harvest is near completion, the corn export pace continues to accelerate, also supported by traders' rush to ship before a possible new lockdown, which would obstruct transportation," it said.

Wheat exports from Ukraine over the same period were 12 million mt, down 1.4 million mt on the year. The country has a wheat export cap of 17.5 million mt on wheat.

For wheat, Platts Analytics has largely maintained production and export estimates at the previous levels of 25.6 million mt, and 17.6 million mt, respectively. The USDA's estimates for wheat production and exports from Ukraine are in line with Platts Analytics'.