Australia's 2020-21 wheat forecast raised to 31.2 mil mt on favorable weather

Singapore — Australia's national wheat production for the 2020-21 crop year is expected to surge 106% year on year to 31.2 million mt, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said Dec. 1.

The latest forecast is 2.3% higher than ABARES' September forecast of wheat production for the crop year at 28.9 million mt due to persistent improved weather conditions, the bureau said.

Australia's wheat growers have been battling a severe drought for three consecutive years and the new season's forecast output is on track to be the second-largest since the 2016-17 crop year, data on the ABARES website showed.

Higher yields and increased planting acreages are also driving the higher output forecasts.

The wheat production forecast for eastern New South Wales has overtaken Western Australia, traditionally the country's largest wheat-producing state.

New South Wales' output is forecast at 12.2 million mt for the 2020-21 crop year, up 463% from last season, while the crop estimate for Western Australia is 8.2 million mt, up 41% on year.

Australia is expected to regain its global market share on the back of the increases in production, market sources said.

"They should capture the vast majority of Southeast Asia, Bangladesh and some of the Middle East and East Africa [markets]," one trading source said.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's three-month seasonal outlook for December-February is forecasting above-average rainfall in New South Wales and neighboring Queensland.