BRAZIL CORN WATCH: Rains likely to ease dryness in south this week

Rains are likely to bring temporary relief to first corn crops in the southern parts of Brazil in the coming days, reports from weather agencies indicated.

Although Rio Grande do Sul received some rains last week, the volume of rains was insufficient for corn and producers are already fearing yield losses in areas planted in September, which have received little rain in the first half of November, Brazil-based agriculture consultancy AgRural said in a report.

"Rain will be limited to Mato Grosso over the next few days, but rain is expected to develop in Rio Grande do Sul later this week, which should ease dryness," Maxar said in its daily weather report on Nov. 22.

"In the southern region, rainfall volumes between 20-50 mm are forecast over a large part of the region, with volumes up to 100 mm (predicted) in some localities in the central part of Parana, west of Santa Catarina and north of Rio Grande do Sul," according to Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology, also known as INMET.

The first corn crop in Brazil is planted during September-December and harvested in February-May, while the second crop is planted in February-March and harvested in June-July.

The first corn crop accounted for 25% of Brazil's total corn production in 2019-20.

The planting of first corn in the key states of Brazil, which accounts for 92% of the forecast area, had reached 70.3% of the estimated area for MY 2021-22 as of Nov. 20, compared with 63.3% a year ago, national agricultural agency Conab's crop progress report showed.

Brazil's 2021-22 corn crop will be marketed during February 2022-January 2023.

Prices continue to drop

Brazilian corn prices in the spot market continued their downtrend over the last few days as farmers are unloading corn stocks to accommodate the upcoming soybean crop, Conab said in its weekly report.

The slow pace of corn exports in the current season and the good progress of the first corn crop are also weighing on prices, Brazil-based Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics, or CEPEA, said.

As of Nov. 19, the average corn price for the month was at real 84.53/60 kg bag, the lowest, in real terms, since September 2020, according to the corn price indicator tracked by CEPEA.