Russia farm ministry proposes to stop durum wheat exports for six months: TASS

Russia's agriculture ministry has proposed a ban on durum wheat exports for six months from Dec. 1 through May 31, 2024, Russia's government news agency TASS reported Nov. 2, citing a draft proposal from the ministry.

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, but its durum supplies are comparatively small. It is expected to produce around 750,000 mt durum wheat in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June), up from 735,000 mt in MY 2022-23, trader sources said.

"The government may look at banning exports of durum wheat as domestic food prices have increased," a local trader said.

Russia has sold over 400,000 mt durum wheat so far in MY 2023-24, sharply up total 200,000 mt in the previous year, trade participants said.

Durum wheat is used mainly to produce pasta, with Italy being a key importer of Russian wheat. According to data from EU Crop Observatory, Russia has sold 278,472 mt durum wheat to the EU so far in MY 2023-24, up from 15,153 mt in the previous year.

"If Russia stops supplies of durum wheat, it will push prices sharply higher," a trader based in Italy said.

Russia is expected to harvest 88.6 million mt ofwheat in MY 2023-24 and is expected to export 47.2 million mt, said Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grains analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights. In MY 2022-23, Russia harvested around 92 million mt ofwheat and shipped out nearly 45.5 million mt, Sinitsyna added.

Global supplies of durum wheat in MY 2023-24 are expected to dwindle due to poor harvests in Canada, the largest producer, due to persistent dry conditions, market participants said.

In MY 2023-24 (August-July), Canada is export 3.3 million mt durum wheat in MY 2023-24, against 5.1 million mt in the previous year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported Oct. 23.

Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed Russian wheat 12.5% protein FOB price at $227/mt Nov. 2, up $2/mt day on day.