Ukraine's MY 2023-24 corn exports slump 51% on year to 3 mil mt

Ukraine's corn exports in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) fell 50.8% year on year to 3.03 million mt as of Oct. 18, data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food showed.

So far in October, the country shipped 351,000 mt of corn compared with 1.32 million mt a year ago.

Ukraine is the world's fourth largest corn exporter. In MY 2022-23, the country supplied 29.5 million mt of corn, ministry data showed.

In MY 2023-24, the nation's corn exports are expected to reach 19.5 million mt, estimated Victoria Sinitsyna, senior grain analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"The drop in exports is primarily due to logistical disruptions caused by the war with Russia," a trade source said. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

According to industry sources, Ukraine's export potential has been hit since Russia walked out of the Black Sea grain deal in July. Since walking away from the deal, Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine's port facilities.

Ukraine, however, has been exporting through river ports of Reni and Izmail on the Danube and using transit routes through European Union, sources said. It has also developed a fresh marine corridor through Black Sea, to allow exports using the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdenny.

"Possible sales of Ukrainian corn into China can boost Ukraine's exports, if confirmed, and could lead to a long-term opening of the country's trade route via the Black Sea ports and an increase in Ukrainian agricultural export volume," Sinitsyna said.

She estimated Ukraine's corn production at 27 million mt for MY 2023-24.

Platts assessed Ukrainian corn FOB Black Sea at $179/mt Oct. 18, down $6/mt day on day, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.