IGC revises up 2022-23 global grain output estimate by 8 million mt

The International Grains Council has revised its global grains output forecast 8 million mt higher to 2.256 billion mt for the marketing year 2022-23 (April-March), led by projected increases in global wheat production but offset by a cut in expected global corn, soybean and rice harvests, it said in a monthly update Sept. 22.

Global grains output in MY 2021-22 stood at 2.291 billion mt, according to IGC data.

The council kept its forecast for global grains trade in MY 2022-23 unchanged at 409 million mt and also maintained its estimate for global grains consumption at 2.274 billion mt.

It increased its estimate for global grain ending stocks to 587 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 577 million mt in last month's forecast.

Global wheat output estimates were sharply increased to 792 million mt for MY 2022-23, from 778 million mt last month, due to expected higher output in Russia, Canada and Australia, it said.

The global wheat trade estimate was maintained at 193 million mt.

Global wheat consumption was raised to 785 million mt for MY 2022-23, from a forecast of 783 million mt last month.

It increased its projection for global carryover stocks to 286 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 275 million mt estimated last month.

For corn, the IGC slashed its estimate for global output by 11 million mt to 1.168 billion mt, due to an expected decline in output in the US and Argentina.

It also cut global corn trade estimates by 1 million mt from last month's report to 172 million mt for MY 2022-23.

It further reduced its consumption projection for MY 2022-23 to 1.191 billion mt, down 6 million mt from last month.

Corn carryover stock estimates were raised to 286 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 275 million mt previously.

For rice, the IGC reduced its production forecast to 508 million mt for MY 2022-23, from 514 million mt seen a month earlier, due to adverse weather in India and Pakistan.

Global rice consumption estimates were reduced to 515 million mt for MY 2022-23 from 518 million mt seen last month, and global rice trade was cut to 49 million mt from 52 million mt seen earlier.

The IGC reduced its forecast for global carryover stocks of rice to 173 million mt, down 4 million mt from the previous estimate.

The global soybean production forecast was cut to 387 million mt in MY 2022-23 from 389 million mt in last month's report, with global soybean trade now seen at 165 million mt, down from 166 million mt last month.

The soybean consumption projection was increased to 378 million mt for MY 2022-23, down 1 million mt seen last month. The global carryover stocks estimate for soybeans was increased to 53 million mt from 52 million mt seen last month.