US 2021-22 soybean meal price estimated at $385/st, down $10 from July: USDA

The US Department of Agriculture, or USDA, has forecast average domestic soybean meal for the 2021-22 marketing year (September to August) at $385/st, down by $10 from July estimates, the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report released Aug. 12 showed.

US meal production estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year were down 0.8% compared to July at 52.05 million st, while domestic ending stocks are projected to reach 500,000 st, steady from the previous month's estimates.

For 2021-22, global soy meal ending stocks are forecast to drop 4.7% from July to 11.59 million mt, the data showed. The decrease reflects an estimated fall in soy meal ending stocks in Argentina by 13.2% and in Brazil by 3.1%, compared to July estimates.

According to the USDA estimates, world soy meal production in 2021-22 is set to reach 258.69 million mt, slightly down from 260.63 million mt projected in July.

China's meal production estimate was reduced by 2% from July to 77.62 million mt, while import projection held steady at 6,000 mt.

Soybean crush for China is 2 million mt lower than July estimates at 98 million mt, in line with downward revisions to crush and soybean meal consumption in the prior year, according to the USDA.

Soybean oil production outlook cut

The USDA maintained its estimates for domestic soybean oil price at 65 cents/lb for the 2021-22 marketing year, but cut production outlook by about 1% from July to 25.7 billion lb.

US soy oil ending stocks for 2021-22 are projected to reach 1.45 million lb, down 2.4% from the previous month's estimates.

For the 2021-22 marketing year, the USDA raised its projection for world soy oil ending stocks by 5.1% from July to 4.36 million mt.

The increase primarily reflects a projected rise in ending stocks in Brazil by about 58% and in the EU by 10%, compared to July estimates, according to the WASDE report.

Global soy oil production is expected to be 61.93 million mt, down from 62.32 million mt in July, the report showed.

However, Argentina's soy oil production estimate for the 2021-22 marketing year was raised for the second consecutive month to 8.55 million mt, from 8.50 million mt in July and 8.40 million mt in June.