USDA cuts 2020-21 world milled rice output but still sees record high

London — The US Department of Agriculture Aug. 12 lowered its forecast for 2020-21 global milled rice production by 2.1 million mt to 500 million mt.

In its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the USDA attributed the cut to reduced output prospects in China, Thailand and Vietnam.

Despite the lower forecast, this would still be a record high. While the forecast for global consumption has also been cut due to lower consumption forecasts for China, Brazil and Nigeria, it is still forecast at a record high 497 million mt.

Although the forecast for trade is lowered to 44.3 million mt due to reduced prospects for Thai and Chinese exports, this is a 6.8% year-on-year increase.

Ending stocks are forecast at a record 185 million mt, of which 63% are expected to consist of Chinese stocks and 21% of Indian stocks.