US DATA: USDA revises up 2020-21 soybean output estimate

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture Aug. 12 raised its forecast for US 2020-21 (September-August) soybean production by 290 million bushels to 4.425 billion bushels due to higher yields.

In its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report, the USDA said it had increased its first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels an acre by 3.5 bushels from last month's report, taking it 5.9 bushels higher year on year.

Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.

US soybean exports were raised 75 million bushels to 2.13 billion on increased global import demand, increased supplies and lower prices.

The average market estimate for US soybeans ending stocks in 2020-21 was 525 million bushels.

S&P Global Platts Analytics is forecasting the 2020-21 US soybean acreage at 83.8 million acres, the yield at 50.5 bushels/harvested acre, soybean production at 4.190 billion bushels, soy exports at 2.050 billion bushels and ending stocks at 480 million bushels.

The USDA put the 2020-21 US season-average soybean price at $8.35/bu, down 15 cents from its July estimate. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 a short ton, down $10 from last month and soybean oil price forecast is up 1 cent on July estimates at 30 cents/lb.

2019-20 Estimates

The US is estimated to export 1.650 billion bushels of soybeans in 2019-20, unchanged from July's estimate, the WASDE report said.

Soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 are projected at 615 million bushels, down 5 million from last month.

The average market estimate for 2019-20 US soybean ending stock was 616 million bushels.

Platts Analytics is forecasting the 2019-20 US soybean acreage at 76.1 million acres, yield at 47.4 bushels per harvested acre, soy production at 3.552 billion bushels, exports at 1.675 billion bushels and ending stocks at 569 million bushels.

Global Estimates

The USDA raised global 2020-21 soybean trade by 3.9 million mt, with higher exports from Brazil, Argentina and the US.

Higher soybean import demand is expected from China, Thailand, Argentina, Egypt, and India, it added.

With higher global soybean production mostly offset by higher use in 2020-21, mainly in China, the USDA increased its global ending stocks forecast by 300,000 mt to 95.4 million.