USDA sees 2022-23 corn area higher than the previous estimate; soybean acres cut

The US Department of Agriculture estimated corn planted area for all purposes for the marketing year 2022-23 (September-August) to be at 89.9 million acres, above its previous estimate, it said in its annual acreage report, released June 30.

For US corn, the planted area at the current estimate is a tad higher than the USDA's March planting intention number at 89.5 million acres and very close to the average market expectations of 89.86 million acres.

The estimated acreage, however, is 4% below last year's 93.357 million acres. Platts Analytics sees US corn acres in MY 2022-23 to be at 90.2 million acres.

Analysts have attributed the year-on-year fall in corn acreage to higher fertilizer costs as corn is a fertilizer-intensive crop compared to soybeans—which is likely to have pushed some US corn acres to soybeans.

The states with the largest corn planting acreage expected were Iowa at 12.7 million acres, Illinois at 10.7 million acres, Nebraska at 9.7 million acres, and Minnesota at 8.3 million acres.

The MY 2022-23 corn crop has been planted in the US and around 4% of the crop has emerged so far, according to another USDA report released June 27. The harvest for this crop will start September-October.

Soybean acreage estimates lowered

US soybean planted area for MY 2022-23 (September-August) is estimated at 88.3 million acres, a drop of 2.65 million acres from March estimates of 90.95 million acres, said the USDA. The current acreage estimate, however, is 1% higher year on year, according to USDA.

The current soybean acreage estimate is also lower than average market expectations of 94.4 million acres, and Platts Analytics' estimate of 90.2 million acres.

Illinois is expected to plant more soybean acres than any other state in MY 2022-23, with an estimated 11.2 million acres, the data showed. Other major states were Iowa with 10.3 million acres, Minnesota with 7.5 million acres, and North Dakota and Missouri with 5.9 million acres each.

US farmers have finished planting 97% of the intended soybean acreage for the MY 2022-23 crop through June 26, and 91% of the crop has emerged so far, according to USDA.

Following the release of the report, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell, while soybean futures saw a jump. At 1644 GMT, the front-month July futures contract of corn was seen trading at $7.60/bushel, down 15 cents since the release of the report.

The front-month July soybean futures contract rose 37 cents to trade at $17.01/bu after the report was released. The contract later shed gains and was seen trading at $16.87/bu at 1646 GMT.

Wheat acreage estimates lowered

USDA lowered its projection for the US wheat planting area slightly for the MY 2022-23 (July-June) crop to 47.1 million acres, from the previously estimated 47.35 million acres. The current estimate, however, is 1% higher on the year, USDA said.

Despite the year-on-year increase, if realized, this will be the fifth-lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919, USDA said.

The average market expectation for MY 2022-23 US wheat acreage was 47.017 million acres, close to the USDA's estimates.

The winter wheat area, which accounts for around 69% of the total wheat planted area in the US, is likely to rise 1% from the previous year to 34 million acres, according to the data.

The area expected to be planted for spring wheat for MY 2022-23 is estimated at 11.1 million acres, down 3% from MY 2021-22.

The updated acreage numbers for the MY 2022-23 will provide a way forward for US grains supply and demand estimates. Weather will also be a key determining factor for US grain output as most US crops are in the growing stages currently. Dryness in parts of the US is stressing growing crops, while the long-term forecast of dry weather is adding to output concerns.