US to turn net exporter of soybean oil on production rise, falling biofuel usage: FAS

The US is expected to export more soybean oil than it imports in FY 2024-25 (September – August), reversing a two-year trend where it was a net importer, the US Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in its monthly oilseeds report June 12.

Soybean oil use in the US to make renewable diesel has declined and is being partly replaced with other feedstocks such as animal tallow and used cooking oil, FAS said its monthly oilseeds report.

The US is the world's largest biodiesel maker, of which a major chunk is made from soybean oil. However, soybean oil's share of feedstock consumption declined from near 45% in early 2022 to below 35% in early 2024, FAS said.

In FY 2024-25 the US is expected to export 272,000 mt of soybean oil, while importing 204,000 mt. In the year before, the US had exported 204,000 mt while importing 249,000 mt of the vegetable oil, US data showed.

US soybean oil production is forecast at a record high of 12.93 million mt in 2024-25, driven by a 4% increase in domestic demand, FAS said. This was up from 12.227 million mt in MY 2023-24.

Global soybean prices declined in the last month due to improved production in South America compared to the year before and better US plantings, FAS said.

Platts assessed CIF New Orleans soybeans at $455.99/mt on June 11 down $ 9.92/mt on month and $81.1/mt from a year ago, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Soy meal trade up

Ample supplies and cheaper soybean meal prices have pushed up global protein meal demand and lifted exports of the commodity, FAS said.

Combined soybean meal exports between January and May 2024 for Argentina, Brazil, and the US are estimated at nearly 27 million mt, over 20% higher compared to the same period last year, the FAS said.

The United States benefited from weaker competition from Argentina during the first quarter of the year and pushed January‐May exports to new highs, 16% above the same time last year

US January-May exports of soybean meal rose to 7 million mt from 6 million mt, helped by weaker competition from Argentina during the first quarter of the year, FAS said.

"Seasonal recovery in competition from South America may affect future meal exports from the US," the FAS said June 12.

Export prospects

This has also led to increased projections for year-ending stocks of raw beans in the US for MY 2024-25 to 12.38 million mt.

The forecast was up from 12.11 million mt on the month and stocks finished the previous year at 9.52 million mt.

It also led to higher projections of soybean export potential from the US to 49.668 million mt from 46.26 million mt a year ago.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.